Tom Brady is Back! Are the 2007 Patriots?

The fact that Tom Brady’s leg injury from last year no doubt opened the door for many teams in the AFC to be considered at a competitive balance should be no secret to anyone. Now that Brady is back, he has lost mobility, but that doesn’t mean that this year’s Patriots can’t be very close to explosive as they were in their undefeated regular season from two years past.

Even if the Patriots’ offense isn’t going to be as explosive as it was when it was the most explosive offense in NFL history, well then how bad can the drop off really be? Still one of the top offenses ever? Close to one of the top offenses ever? Or at least one of the top two offenses this season. Either way, those odds are good for the Pats.

Don’t be surprised if the Patriots run away with the AFC East where the Jets are still growing and have no proven quarterback, the Dolphins rely on trickery and near-perfect play from Chad Pennington at quarterback, and Buffalo where, Trent Edwards proved last year that he still has something to well… prove!

Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens Playoff Primer

Game number three of Wild-Card weekend will feature two teams that had surprise turnarounds from last season. But of the two teams, the biggest surprise was last season’s hapless 1-15 Miami Dolphins doing a complete 180 with an 11-5 record this season while also earning the AFC East title. The Ravens, although always strong defensively, are nothing short of surprising either as they went from 5-11 last year to 11-5 this year. What makes their turnaround so remarkable was that they did it with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, and if it weren’t for injuries to both Kyle Boller and Troy Smith before week one, Joe Flacco may not have gotten his first start until later in the season and who knows what happens. With that being said, let’s take a look at the key phases of each team’s game.

Ravens’ Advantage

Both team’s offenses seem to even one another out. The Dolphins score 21.6 points per game and the Ravens 24.1 points per game. Although the Dolphins average only 118.6 yards on the ground to the Ravens 148.5, Miami out-throws Baltimore by a tune of 227 yards per game to 175.5. This shows that the Ravens outrun the Dolphins by 29.9 yards per game, and the Dolphins pass for 51.5 yards more than the Ravens.

Even with that being said, conventional wisdom shows that the team with the better running game will win. And that should be the case here. What’s even more is that the Ravens are 3^rd defensively against the run at 81.4ypg, and a whopping 2^nd versus the pass giving up 179.7ypg. The problem the Dolphins have, even though they get to play in the confines of their home stadium, is that they are 25^th against the pass at 227.8ypg, and 10^th versus the run at 101.2ypg. In all respects, giving up 101.2 yards a game on the ground is not that bad, but when the duo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams is good for a great total of 1,575 yards, and the Ravens trio of Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain, and Ray Rice combined for an outstanding number like 2,028, then not only are the Ravens defending the run better, but they are carrying the ball better as well.

Dolphins’ Advantage

Even though the Ravens outweigh the Dolphins in some key statistical categories necessary for playoff success, they have not been very good on the road playing against the projected playoff teams in the pre-season; at Indianapolis they lost 3-31, at the Giants they lost 10-30. Their only strong points against what were considered playoff teams were at Pittsburgh when they lost in OT 20-23, at the Dolphins when they won 27-13, and finally, when they beat Dallas 33-24.

Allow me to downplay. The Steelers and Ravens are diehard division rivals and always play each other tough. The Cowboys game had two aberration type plays on the Ravens final two drives; an 82 yard scoring run followed by a 77 yard scoring run. Any team would be lucky to get a run of either of those lengths all season long. Last but not least, when the Ravens beat the Dolphins in Miami in week 7, it dropped the Dolphins’ record to 2-4. Since then, Miami has gone 9-1 and are playing at a slightly different level than that period of time.

The other thing the Dolphins have going for them is that they had the fewest turnovers in the league with only 13. Chad Pennington had arguably his best season since his first ever rotator-cuff injury with a career-high 3,653 yards, 19 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions while completing 67.4 percent of his passes. Rookie QB Joe Flacco, although he had a great season for a rookie, 2,971 yards, 14 TDs, 12 INTs (not to mention his eleven fumbles) and completed 60.0 percent of his passes, he is still a rookie and is definitely mistake-prone.

Like one analyst put it… “What the Ravens thrive on, the Dolphins simply don’t do”… turn the ball over!

Conclusion

Although the Dolphins play at home, and are riding the emotional high an unprecedented successful season and comeback year of Chad Pennington, I have to go with the Ravens. They can negate their opponent’s run, and kill them with their own. Furthermore, Joe Flacco is quickly being molded into the confident game manager who can make a few plays here and there that Baltimore has been looking for. I only see Joe Flacco having, at the most, one turnover, and with their 2^nd ranked total defense (261.1ypg) and 3^rd ranked defense in points given up per game (15.2), the Ravens can easily overcome it. I cannot see a team who beat squads like Seattle without QB Matt Hasselbeck by two points, Oakland by two points as well, San Francisco by five, all at home, and Saint Louis by four on the road beating this gritty Ravens team.

Ravens will move on to play the one-seeded Tennessee Titans next week.

Can Underachieving NFL Favorites Keep Pace with the Rest of the League?

Before the start of the 2008 NFL season there were four sure-fire Super Bowl favorites; the Dallas Cowboys, San Diego Chargers, Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots. So far after seven weeks only the Patriots seem to have any type of competitive balance with a 4-2 record and only one game behind AFC East leading Buffalo Bills at 5-1.

The aforementioned teams have not faired so well and are a combined 10-10.

Even though Tony Romo is out, there is no excuse for the lack of effort the Cowboys showed in their 34-14 blowout in St. Louis. They have allowed two upstart teams, the Redskins and Cardinals, and a bottom-feeder in St. Louis get wins against them. Even though Romo was in against the two upstarts, he has averaged at least one turnover per game.

The Chargers have been the epitomy of inconsistency through seven games going loss, loss, win, win, loss, win, loss en-route to a 3-4 record. Traveling east has not helped them as they go forward three time zones every time. Now they have to go eight time zones to play the Saints in London this weekend!

Brady-Less Patriots Still a Force in the NFL

The 2008 week seven edition of Monday Night Football was not what most viewers probably expected it to be. They expected to see the highly-touted Broncos offense rack up yardage and if the Patriots were to have a chance at this game they would have had to keep up somehow behind the inexperience throwing arm of Matt Cassel.

However, the Broncos turned the ball over five different times and gave up huge rushing lanes to Sammy Morris and the other representatives of the New England backfield. Matt Cassel was able to complete an efficient outing going 18 for 24 passing, 185 yards, 3 TDs and no interceptions. And what’s more is that the Patriots have kept pace with the 5-1 Buffalo Bills after boosting their record to 4-2.

The Pats may not be a favorite Super Bowl pick anymore after the season ending injury of Tom Brady but they are doing what most coaches preach as the best way to secure a playoff berth, and that’s win your division. If the veteran talent of the New England Patriots can continue to support Matt Cassel and win some games, they may be able to surpass the young roster of the Buffalo Bills at the end of the season.

Are the Buffalo Bills Really that Good?

The Buffalo Bills have been a topic of discussion all season long. Their early success has created much buzz about them being shoe-ins for the AFC East title. I don’t see why that is though. Sure, they were 4-0, and they went down in Arizona while JP Losman played most of the game. However, JP Losman didn’t give up 41 points. At the end of week 7, the look of the AFC East will be a lot different and it can all culminate fairly easy.

In week 7, the Jets are playing in Oakland who looked like they had no spirit when they played the Saints this past weekend losing 34-3. If the Jets win, they are 4-2 and that would be no surprise if they did.

New England plays host to Denver on Monday Night Football. This game should not be easy for New England to win. They’ll have to grind it out big time. However, they’re at home in front of a national audience and if they do pull it off, they’re 4-2 as well.

Finally, those loveable Bills play host to the San Diego Chargers. Albeit the Chargers are only 3-3, they are still a good 3-3. If the Bills lose, they’ll be 4-2. Now picture this possible version of the AFC East standings at the end of Week 7;

AFC East

BUF 4-2

N.E. 4-2

NYJ 4-2

MIA 3-3

Doesn’t look too clear cut anymore now, does it? I didn’t think so.