Eastern Conference Outlook

As the hour draws closer and the puckheads continue to salivate over the tease that is the hockey preseason it is time to supplement the appetizers before the hockey fest begins.

Eastern Conference Preview:

I’ll start by predicting who I think will make it to the playoffs (in no particular order) then we’ll look at least briefly at where each team stands. So here are the top eight teams in no particular order:
Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Rangers (Carolina Hurricanes?), New Jersey Devils, Philadelphia Flyers, Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, and the Washington Capitals.

The Pittsburgh Penguins should probably be the favorites going into the season because their team is a lot the same and they are the champs until someone else wins the title. They did lose Rob Scuderi but overall you have to like their chances to defend their conference title.

The New York Rangers lost Scott Gomez but have added Marian Gaborik who—if he can stay healthy—will add scoring power to a pretty solid but not spectacular line-up. The nice thing about the Rangers is that even if they do not score a ton of goals Henrik Lundqvist will keep them in most games, will steal a few, and will overall give them a chance to win most every contest they are involved in. Having a chance to win every game is not actually winning them however and that’s where Gaborik is going to be important for them. If Gaborik stays healthy he scores enough goals to get them enough points to get them into the playoffs. In the event that Gaborik does get hurt that will leave New York on the outside looking in and will open the door for the Carolina Hurricanes to sneak into a playoff spot. Carolina too is a solid team but Cam Ward cannot do it alone and they will not be able to rely on Jussi Jokkinen to play all year the way he did in the playoffs. But if any team should fall off at all (i.e. the Rangers) that opens the door for the Canes. Either way, neither team will be a serious Stanley Cup contender.

The New Jersey Devils are channeling their inner 1995 by bringing Jacques Lemaire back to captain the ship. Nothing has changed for the Devils since 1995 and as a result they can continue like a well-oiled machine with their new, old, coach. New Jersey is very much a system team so with Martin Brodeur playing behind that system you have to pencil them into the playoffs and as championship contenders. Some players have changed since last season’s first round exit to Carolina but it matters not as the methodical Devils will be back in the playoffs again.

In each of the last two years the Philadelphia Flyers have put very good teams on the ice but have run into a freight train headed to the finals in the form of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Flyers got tougher by adding veteran Chris Pronger  but their folly has arguably been in goal and that is an issue that still has yet to be worked out. Philadelphia went across the pond to lure Ray Emery back to North America so the verdict is still out on whether the goaltending problem is fixed (one might argue that Emery’s attitude will cause more problems than it will solve). Bottom line, the Flyers talent will get them to the playoffs and at that point all they’ll need is solid (not spectacular) net play to put themselves in a position to win the Stanley Cup.

Boston’s future is bright because their talent level is a lot the same as last year. Phil Kessel was traded for some draft picks which speaks to how confident Boston is with their team from top to bottom. They still have Chara manning the blueline and they can score at the drop of a hat. There were a lot of questions about Tim Thomas last year and he’ll have to answer those same questions again this year. If Thomas is able to play consistently well the Bruins will learn from their experience last year and should be considered favorites to at least reach the east finals.

The key for the Buffalo Sabres is to stay healthy. Last season Buffalo was a clear playoff team until injuries struck them like a wrecking ball and their playoff hopes came crashing down. So if the Sabres’ stars stay healthy they will be a force, if they do not then Buffalo is not a force… it’s that simple.

The Washington Capitals can score like none other. In the offensive zone 5-on-5 and on the power play they are just about unstoppable. The Caps are greatly lacking defensively but certainly score enough to make up for that over the course of a long season. The biggest downfall of Washington last year was in net and that is their greatest unknown once again. Semyon Varlamov was certainly much better than anyone could have expected in the playoffs last season but is he the answer long term? There is no doubt that Varlamov has talent but he is still young and with being young come growing pains that every player experiences. If Varlamov grows quickly then there’s reason to believe the Caps can win it all, but if he doesn’t then it the fans in DC will be “rocking the red” to the second round of the playoffs and no further.

The Montreal Canadiens did three very good things in the offseason: let Kovalev go, picked up Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez, and got rid of Kovalev (did I mention that already). Alexi Kovalev is a very talented player but he was too inconsistent and caused too much drama in a place that creates enough drama on its own.  Gionta and Gomez provide stability as leaders on the ice and can put points on the scoreboard. Both players spent time in New Jersey so each know how to play a role to perfection. As long as Carey Price can keep his confidence up and the fans give this team a chance they can be very dangerous.

As for the rest of the conference there is very little to talk about. The New York Islanders are clearly rebuilding so the best anyone can hope from them is that John Tavares and company just improve from game to game. In my estimation the Islanders have far more problems off the ice (on the business end) than they do on it. The isles know they are rebuilding and are taking steps toward becoming a good team in time. This is in contrast to the Lightning, Thrashers, Senators, Maple Leafs, and Panthers.

Tampa has a lot of talent but did nothing with is last year and do not have a goaltender that can take them anywhere. Atlanta is just plain bad and probably will not improve very much in all likelihood. Ottawa keeps changing coaches, do not gel as a team, have lost one of their best players in Dany Heatley, and decided that adding Kovalev was the best way to stabilize/improve their team (very dumb). Toronto cannot decide whether they want to try to win now or build for the future. Last year they had enough talent to stay at the top of the non playoff teams for most of the year and this year they are in about the same spot. Lastly are the Florida Panthers who do not have a whole lot of talent (after having lost bouwmeester ) do not get much fan support which makes for a very bad situation.

So that’s the east in a nutshell (believe it or not). Tune in next time for the west preview as well as my Stanley Cup Finals pick and winner.

Free Agency Extravaganza

Arguably the most exciting part of the NHL offseason begins on Wednesday and that is the beginning of the Free Agency period. The draft resulted in very few moves which leaves a lot of mystery to unfold with some big names on the market including Marian Hossa, Alexi Kovalev, Saku Koivu, Marian Gaborik, and Rob Scuderi (whose stock went way up after his performance in the playoffs) among many other players who will likely be asking for big time deals.  Jay Boumeester will most likely be off the market (barring any disaster) before free agency begins so what can we expect starting Wednesday? With the salary cap only going up by $100K can teams afford to sign big names to gigantic contracts? And what teams have the most to gain from the frenzy?

Perhaps the most obvious place to start is in Montreal where the Canadiens have just come off a very disappointing playoff appearance and who have ten players to become unrestricted free agents (UFA). That will leave a crater to fill in a place where the fans are hungry for a Stanley Cup but have not seen one since 1993. In all likelihood the Canadiens (under new ownership) will go in a new direction and not try to resign big names like Kovalev since this core group has not had the type of success demanded by playing in Montreal. I would be surprised if they try to resign a lot of their players but they will have a lot of decisions to make. If nothing else, Montreal can hang their hats on the fact that they have a goaltender in Carey Price who should be solid for years to come if he just regains his confidence.

A team that is perhaps on the cusp and has a lot to gain from free agency is the Minnesota Wild. Minnesota’s goaltending is solid as Niklas Backstrom was just nominated for the Vezina Trophy and he’s got a great defensive unit in front of him. With that said Minnesota simply needs to get itself some goal scorers or just ONE and that should make up for the two points that kept them out of the playoffs this past season. Marian Hossa comes to mind as an option or perhaps the Sedin twins out of Vancouver, both options would supply the Wild with the scoring they seek.

There also may or may not be a shakeup in San Jose despite their enormous regular season success the post-season saw them exit in the first round. Some have suggested goaltending is all that needs to be addressed and Scott Clemmensen may just be the answer for San Jose’s alleged goaltending needs. Brian Boucher and Evgeni Nabokov did a more than adequate job in my opinion but rumblings in the San Jose front office suggests that it was not up the par in the post-season and they are not very happy with that.

The possibilities are endless for teams all over the league once free agency starts but there is a bit of a taste of the types of moves that could happen. It should be a very exciting day for hockey fans everywhere especially those who think their team is only a move or two away from making a run at the Stanley Cup. There aren’t too many offseason days that produce excitement and this is one of them so hopefully it is an enjoyable one for those needing a hockey fix since the end of the finals.

Sportsroids.com’s NHL Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

The playoff match-ups are all set and read to launch Wednesday evening. To start the first of two playoff previews I will take a look at the Eastern Conference match-ups, give you some notes about them and make a pick. This is the BEST part of the year by far so let’s get right to the previews.

1. Boston Bruins VS 8. Montreal Canadiens
Well it’s a year later and the seedings have been swapped but the first round match-up is the same as the Canadiens and Bruins throw more gasoline on the burning rivalry between the two. The teams are slightly different but the key pieces have gone unchanged. Carey Price and Tim Thomas are both back and bring with them playoff experience which neither of them had last year. Each netminder had stretches of brilliance and ineptitude in the series last year and with that experience under their respective belts they should each be relatively solid in net. Zdano Chara had a fantastic year on defense while Marc Savard, David Krejci, and others showed that you can score a lot of goals in a Claude Julien system. Montreal lost Mark Streit and last year’s version of Alexi Kovalev but they gained some size and toughness in Ryan O’byrne and Georges Laraque (something they desperately needed against Philadelphia last season). There are plenty of other things to consider and we can talk all day and night about this series… so who has the advantage? The Bruins had a great season but really sputtered toward the end including a 6-1 loss to a Sabres team spending another April on the golf course. Montreal did not have the best end of the season either but despite falling so far so quickly they are in and that’s what separates them from the Bruins, despite all odds the Canadiens end up where they want to be. Series outcome: Montreal in six.

2. Washington Capitals VS 7. NY Rangers
This is a battle of goaltenders, plain and simple. Despite the Caps star power when it comes down to a shooting contest I’ll take Henrik Lundqvist over Jose Theodore any day. Washington can score so they’ll steal a game or two but in the end the Rangers will advance in five or six.

3. New Jersey Devils VS 6. Carolina Hurricanes
How far can Martin Brodeur take the Devils? New Jersey did so well without him and once he returned it’s like the team reverted back to the old days of play defense and rely on Brodeur to win 1-0. Those days are over, and if they play that against one of the league’s hottest teams and a Conn Smythe winning goaltender they will lose. Ward has been unbelievable and with Eric Staal and Erik Cole in front of him the Devils are in serious trouble. All-in-all it’s an even match-up on paper, but once you reach the playoffs if Pittsburgh taught us anything last year you go with the hot team. The hot team is Carolina, therefore the Canes take it in five.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins VS 5. Philadelphia Flyers.
It’s the battle of Pennsylvania, division rivals, and the home of the “Crosby is a diver!” Tie that in with revenge on the minds of the Flyers after last year’s playoff thrashing at the hands of the Penguins what else could you want in a series? Crosby and Malkin more than likely have to play well for the Penguins to advance but it’s possible to see Pittsburgh in round two without top-notch play from their two stars. What the Penguins can’t afford to have is inconsistent play from netminder Marc-Andre Fleury. When Fleury is on he’s one of the best goaltenders in the league and shows flashes of what made him such a highly touted amateur player. But when Fleury is off the rest of the team is usually not good enough to bail him out. The same goes for Marty Biron on the other side of the ice. Even if Richards, Carter, Knuble, etc. are amazing if Biron is off the Flyers are done. So the key to this match-up is the goaltending; whoever wins the battle of the goalies will lead their team to round two. So who wins? Marc-Andre Fleury won last year and will win again this year. Both teams will have their moments but the Penguins will win in seven…(the Flyers will be kicking themselves for having lost home-ice on the last day of the season).

Flames and Hawks Sputtering; Carey Price Sighting in Montreal

A few stories of note as the season comes to a close concerning the races for playoff positioning:

1. The Chicago Blackhawks have played well virtually all season, but the last few weeks they have encountered some pretty hard times. Including their loss to Montreal Tuesday night the Blackhawks have lost nine of their last 13 and are in danger of falling out of fourth position and losing the first round home-ice advantage that goes with it. Perhaps it’s the fatigue of a young team going through a long year of high-level performances culminating in a losing stretch as they anticipate the commencement of the playoffs. The dip in play by Chicago is understandable but just because they haven’t made it to the post-season in a while doesn’t mean the fans will be at all forgiving if their late season struggles turn into a first round exit.

2. Tuesday night was a good one for Montreal Canadiens fans everywhere for not only did they down the Blackhawks 4-1 but Tuesday finally marks the return of the good Carey Price. Facing 29 shots, Price stopped 28—giving up only a flukie goal by Patrick Sharp in the third period—price shut down Chicago pretty well. But moreso than simply stopping shots, Price finally looked comfortable again in net; he was standing his ground, staying poised, and didn’t seem like he was overplaying every shot. This is a great sign for the Canadiens who need top-notch play from all positions but especially in net if they plan on making the playoffs and making noise once they get there. At the moment the Canadiens will likely take whatever position they can as long as they qualify for the playoffs but if they stay in 8^th as they are now the hated Boston Bruins would be on tap first…and the plot thickens.

3. The trade deadline moves by the Calgary Flames have not had the desired effect as they have lost eight of 13 since March 4^th. At first the Flames were having some issues with defense and goaltending but now that those have sured up a bit Calgary is having a hard time finding the back of the net. Calgary has scored only four goals in the last four games and were shutout two games in a row by Pittsburgh and Columbus respectively in back-to-back contests. Much like Chicago, the Flames have played well all year but are now in danger of losing the top spot in their division and may actually end up qualifying for the post-season without first round home-ice advantage. Meanwhile the Vancouver Canucks have really hit their stride and are quickly gaining on Calgary and may in fact pull the division right from under the feet of the Flames.

Canadiens Bomb as Ship Begins to Fade Below Surface

Mayday! Mayday! The Montreal Canadiens’ ship is sinking and it’s sinking quickly. At the all-star break the Montreal Canadiens were one of the best teams in the league. They had Robert Lang going, Carey Price was living up to the billing by seemingly evolving into one of the best goaltenders in the league, and despite a subpar power play—and Alex Kovalev for that matter—it was smooth sailing in Montreal. Since January 27^th however the story has been much different. Robert Lang was lost for the year with an achillies injury, Price has gone off the deep end, Kovalev’s game has not really improved at all, Mathieu Schneider’s reacquisition had too short a positive effect, no moves were made at the trade deadling, and now Bob Gainey has replaced Guy Carbonneau with who else but Bob Gainey (and throw in an alleged link to organized crime by the Kostitsyn brothers to boot). A 5-2 loss to rival Toronto made it only four points in their last nine games dropping them to eighth in the east with only one point separating them from complete playoff exclusion. Many solutions have been offered but none have resulted in wins. Now one of sports greatest teams who entered this year optimistic about their chances of ending a 16 year Stanley Cup drought in this their 100^th year anniversary are now headed toward April tee-times. Montreal is sending out an S.O.S. but can anyone save their beloved Canadiens’ season?

Therrien Out. Schneider to Habs. Rangers Seek Avery?

Every now and then I do a sweep around the league commenting on various topics and I think now is the time for one of those sweeps.

Therrien out – Michel Therrien has paid the price for the Pittsburgh Penguins’ season of gravely underachieving. Despite having the league’s top two scorers in Malkin and Crosby respectively, the Penguins are in 10 in the East and are coming off losses to out-of-contention Toronto and the lowly New York Islanders. Therrien is hardly to blame for Pittsburgh’s struggles but coaches are usually the ones to take the blow when a team is struggling because firing players is hardly an option. Baby Penguins (Pittsburgh’s AHL affiliate) boss Dan Bylsma has been called up to lead the team for the remainder of the season. Therrien stated he believes the now Bylsma led team will make the playoffs but now having lost two in a row to teams they should have beaten it certainly seems unlikely. The good news for Pittsburgh is that a lot of teams in front of them have been struggling to win games as of late keeping the Penguins in contention.

Rangers sliding – The New York Rangers have hit a bit of a rut lately losing eight of their last nine, including a five game losing streak and a 4 game slide that was extended Monday night with a loss to home-standing St. Louis. Tom Renney’s job is in jeopardy and the Rangers are considering making a move for Sean Avery of all people to help turn them around. When a team looks to Sean Avery to “right the ship” that team is probably in a hole they will never dig out of.

Mathieu Schneider to Canadiens – The Canadiens—another team in a free-fall—have acquired defensemen Mathieu Schneider from the Atlanta Thrashers for two draft picks. Schneider, now in his 20^th season, returns to the Canadiens after being a part of their last Stanley Cup team in 1993. Perhaps Schneider’s presence will serve as a morale boost but not much more than that. The defense may be sured-up slightly with him in the lineup, but in the end the Canadiens’ problems stem from Carey Price’s collapse, not being able to score on the power play, losing Robert Lang, and Kovalev having an extremely average season. If those pieces don’t shape up then it won’t matter what Schneider does because he cannot carry this franchise to the promised land alone.

Role Players are Golden Commodities

In all sports there is always talk about the superstars and what they bring to teams. A lot of fans—teams for that matter—expect superstars to be super heroes. Like all sports people see superstars on a team and assess their team’s chances based on—essentially—the big names alone. Now that the NHL season has hit February a lot of teams who were successful last year are learning—if they didn’t know already—how much impact a role player can have on a team’s success or lack thereof. Two great examples of that are the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens.

Granted, the Penguins lost Marian Hossa in the offseason but even before him the Penguins were a pretty good team; but along with Hossa they lost a number of role players and now they find themselves struggling just to get into the playoffs. Pittsburgh is really missing the toughness of Georges Laraque but also his ability to handle the puck down low in the offensive zone which really helps protect leads, something the Penguins have really struggled to do. Another thing the Penguins have not had a lot of are “garbage” goals in front of the net because nobody is willing to stand in front of the net to take that punishment the way Ryan Malone did. A strong presence in front of the net for any team is invaluable and it was almost poetic for Ryan Malone to score one of those “garbage” goals against the Penguins in Tampa’s 4-3 loss at Pittsburgh last week. Likewise, Jarkko Ruutu’s ability to not only draw penalties but frustrate the other team getting them to focus on things other than winning the game was priceless. Pittsburgh has a pretty good chance of making the playoffs with the team they have assembled but they would be in better shape with at least those three guys back in all likelihood.

The free-falling Montreal Canadiens role player issues focus mainly on losing Mark Streit to the Islanders. With Streit the Canadiens had an incredible power play that made teams who took penalties against them pay dearly and pay often. In the offseason the Canadiens lost Streit and now their power play is one of the worst in the league. The advantage of the power play is obvious but it is an even bigger deal when a team thrives on it because when its performance goes down the team is less likely to be successful. Since their power play is no longer lethal, the Canadiens needed other guys to accelerate their respective games to be successful and for most of the season they got that. Robert Lang became the team’s leading scorer providing them with more than they could have possibly hoped for from him. Along with Lang’s play Carey Price’s game had really improved and that allowed Montreal to stay afloat. But now Robert Lang is out for the season, Price has been struggling with his confidence and Kovalev’s play has been below average all year. As a result of these recent events the Canadiens are in a free-fall and coming dangerously close to missing the playoffs. Now, both Pittsburgh and Montreal know the value of role players more than ever before.

Canadiens Reeling, Sabres Heating Up

The Montreal Canadiens’ woes continued Friday night losing 3-2 to the all-of-a-sudden surging Buffalo Sabres. Although they only gave up three goals they need much more from Carey Price now that Robert Lang is out for the remainder of the season. Price should not have to carry so much of the burden but if nobody steps up to fill the scoring void created by Lang’s absence Price will have to do it and based on his performance as of late he does not appear to be up to the Challenge. In reality the pressure should be more on Alexi Kovalev who is having a solid season with 36 points but has got to contribute more than 13 goals after posting 35 last year. Granted, there are other players who need to step their game up as well but they look to Kovalev as their leader and if he does not do the job then the rest of the team will suffer. They are still 4^th in the conference but with a record of 2-6 in their last eight and a six game road trip starting next week Montreal is in serious trouble of a disastrous free-fall.

The flip side of Friday’s match-up, the Buffalo Sabres , are getting healthy and getting poised to roar into the playoffs. Thomas Vanek continues his tear through the 2008-09 season with 52 points including 32 goals. Roy, Pominville, Stafford, and Kotalik (among others) are also posting great numbers which combined with the spark Tim Connoly has provided makes for a very scary team should they make the playoffs. Despite the scoring the Sabres MVP is easily Ryan Miller who is having another spectacular season. In the end however it the Sabres are asking too much of Miller and I think he’ll wear down keeping them out of the playoffs.