Never too early for Fantasy Football!

1.  Tom Brady – You can think about that injury all you want, but when you factor in that a 100% Tom Brady threw for 50 TDs and over 4,800 yards with just 8 INTs, then the hampered mobility version of Brady can afford 5 to 10 less TDs and maybe 600 or so less yards. Don’t forget his team’s receiving core has been bolstered by Joey Galloway.

2. Drew Brees – It’s not wins that count in this game… it’s numbers. During his three year tenure in New Orleans, and because of the lack of production in the Saints’ running game, Drew Brees has 4,400+, 4,400+, and 5,000+ yards, with 26, 28, and 34 TDs all respectively. What he loses in a potentially high INT rate (11, 18, and 17 also respectively), he makes up for by averaging 289.79 yards per game and by only having missed one start in the last five years (none in New Orleans).

3. Kurt Warner – After one full year as the Cardinals undisputed starter, he reverted to his accurate past at a 67.1% completion rate, amassed 4,583 passing yards (good for 286.44 a game), and a cool 30 TDs against an up and down 14 INTs. And like Brees, it’s not how many wins you get in this game… it’s the numbers. Now that Larry Fitzgerald has become the LeBron James of his position after his postseason play, Kurt Warner should be in for another big year. Some of you may be worrying about the potential loss of Anquan Boldin, but remember, his playing time was very limited in those playoffs, and Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston surely produced.

4. Peyton Manning – It may come as a surprise that Peyton Manning is number four on my list. He is still good for a smooth 3,800-4,100 yards this season and an ample high 20’s to low 30’s in TD numbers. However, he does not have anywhere near the yards per game potential as the previously mentioned QBs as his team’s defense is definitely above Brees’ and Warner’s, and better than Brady’s as well.

5. Philip Rivers – Philip Rivers showed in 2008 that he can be a big numbers guy. He finished up with 4,009 yards, and a career high 34 TDs. It would not be a stretch to question his potential consistency due to his 2006 and 2007 seasons. In those years he threw for 3,300+ and 3,100+ yards, with 22 and 15 TDs, all respectively. However, last season we started to see huge signs of wear and tear on LaDainian Tomlinson, which is probably a big reason why his numbers soared this past year as compared to those previous two. So in that respect, it would not be a stretch as well to see him having a great fantasy type season again this year.

Jay Cutler could be making many fans of some other lucky team smile sometime soon.

Yesterday it was reported that the Pro Bowl Quarterback of the Denver Broncos, Jay Cutler, had officially requested a trade. Today, we the people, began contemplating where he might end up if his request is honored. I’m sure there are many fans out there whose team could use a guy in Jay Cutler who played like the potential franchise-type quarterback that many analysts foresaw. The scoop is that new head coach Josh McDaniels, who was offensive coordinator for the Patriots, wanted to trade Cutler for Matt Cassel since he was familiar with his system already. This has since angered the young Cutler and he now wants to go… but where?!

To start off an easy process of elimination, every team in the AFC is out since teams don’t usually like to send star players away to in-conference franchises. And although Cassel was finally traded to another AFC team, like his former Patriots, in the Chiefs, that was more of an “I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine” deal.

This was the widespread thought when that deal went down, because Scott Pioli, the former general manager of the Patriots moved onto Kansas City to try and resurrect that ball club.

So the AFC is out!

In the NFC East, Dallas has Tony Romo, NY has Eli Manning, and Philadelphia has Donovan McNabb. So far, Jason Campbell of the Washington Redskins still has a lot to prove, while Cutler seems way more promising than him thus far when both their careers are compared.

In the NFC North, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, and the Vikings made moves to throw their young QB Tarvaris Jackson into a competition with newly acquired Sage Rosenfels from Houston. I don’t think that the Lions could attract an odor, so the Bears are definitely a hot spot. They’ve had no success with Rex Grossman, and minimal with Kyle Orton.

In the NFC South, the Saints boast Drew Brees, and the Falcons have a young star in rookie of the year Matt Ryan. The Panthers would have looked to have some great trade bait with the disgruntled Julius Peppers, but now it looks like he may be a Patriot soon. However, with Jake Delhomme being their current signal caller you still can’t count them out. Then there’s the Buccaneers who got rid of veteran Jeff Garcia.

After that, in the NFC West, the Seahawks have Matt Hasselbeck who is not past his better days yet, and Kurt Warner is obviously safe as the Cardinals QB. Cross those two teams out and you have the 49ers with the disappointing results of Alex Smith’s progress, and the St. Louis Rams, who should have started thinking about dropping Marc Bulger quite some time ago.

So there you have it. The top candidates to have Jay Cutler for President!

But that doesn’t matter because they aren’t champions and the Pittsburgh Steelers created and/or forced the Cardinals into those mistakes. But make no bones about it; this team totally changed its approach when the playoffs began.

Their offense remained just as explosive as it had been in the air, and then they finally decided to rely on the run a little more. For next year, the Cardinals now know that they can run the ball effectively. With Edgerin James getting older, and Tim Hightower being nothing more than an effective backup, the Cardinals have plenty of room to draft a power or fast, or whatever kind of back that can be a pro-bowler. And honestly, they can’t be much worse than James and Hightower.  

Everyone knows about the trend of Super Bowl losers not making the playoffs the next year, but remember, the Cardinals are still in a poor division with two teams that have to rebuild, Rams and 49ers, and one team that was in real shambles this season and with an aging QB in Matt Hasselbeck, the Seattle Seahawks. I know that sounds hypocritical because Warner is 37 and was still dead nasty, but he is an exception to the rule of the old quarterbacks whose performances dwindle when they get older.

Another strong argument against their chances may be that if they can’t keep Anquan Boldin they won’t be as explosive. However, we must remember they either didn’t play with him or did while he was ailing with injuries during these playoffs, and Larry Fitzgerald still tore it up.

I believe the Arizona Cardinals are right where they need to be. They showed lots of heart in the Super Bowl defensively after being down 17-7 and 20-7, because they still stuck to their guns and held the Steelers shy of the end zone twice. Of course they blew it at the end, but they still showed a lot of moxie. Do not be surprised to see them in the Super Bowl if it does happen. Plus, with the way the NFL has been the past few seasons, I think the only teams that could surprise me in the Super Bowl are the Lions and 49ers. ‘Nuff said.

In an interview this week Troy Polamalu was asked about Kurt Warners resurgence in the NFL, Polamalu went on to compare it to Tommy Maddox’s days with the Steelers.    He stated that Kurt Warner is a good quarter back in a great system with great players, and that is the truth.  While Kurt Warner is a good quarterback we all saw how well he performed in New York.   If that indeed is the truth then here is another truth you can’t win the Super Bowl with Tommy Maddox at the helm.   The Steelers know all to well what that is like,  the only concern now is if Kurt Warner  a former NFL MVP and Super Bowl Champion will use that comment as fuel to help him play better.  I know that if I was compared to Tommy Maddox in anything I would be quite upset.    Now the intention is not to take what Polamalu said out of context, he in fact was doing his best (as all the Players have been doing this week) to say nothing but good things about the other team to keep media hype down.  However if Tommy Maddox is involved in the topic there can be no good to come from it.   On the other side I am sure Tommy Maddox is somewhere saying “yeah I am kinda like Kurt Warner” ha ha ha.

And even the veteran Steelers are somewhat of a surprise after being knocked out of the first round last year at home to Jacksonville, in earning a Super Bowl Birth while facing the league’s toughest schedule based on last year’s opponents winning percentages.

The Skinny on Arizona

The Arizona Cardinals went from losers of three of their last five regular season games, to winners of three straight post-season games. And not only did they do this with the playoff-history-leading performance by Larry Fitzgerald, 23 catches and 419 yards, but they did it by forcing turnovers and also by generating a respectable ground game.

In their three playoff victories, the cardinals have forced a total of 13 turnovers; eight interceptions, and five fumbles, for an average of 4.3 per game.

On top of that, a running game that averaged a mere 73.6ypg during the regular season, good for last in the league, grew up and averaged 113.3ypg game in the post season.

The Downside on Arizona

For all of the praise that the Cardinals have received for being a previously perennial blundering franchise and finally reaching a Super Bowl, they still managed to give up 259.6 passing yards per game (38.4 more than their 22nd ranked 221.2ypg in the regular season) and 20.6 points per game, which is only 6.1 less than their 26.7 in the regular season.

Although that is an improvement of close to a touchdown, and the extra passing yardage they have given up can be attributed to giving up just 74ypg on the ground in their playoff wins, that still shows that they have a propensity to let teams back in the game through the air, as they did against the Falcons in the Wild Card round, and Eagles in the NFC Championship game.

The Skinny on Pittsburgh

The Steelers benefited greatly from the privilege of facing an 8-8 San Diego Chargers team in the divisional round, and an 11-5 sixth seeded Baltimore Ravens team at home, after they upset the one seeded Tennessee Titans, in the AFC Championship Game. However, they still won their games by continuing on the success of their 1st ranked defense in points (13.9), total yardage (237.2), passing yardage (156.9), and 2nd ranked run defense (80.2ypg). They were able to hold Baltimore to 14 points, and even though San Diego managed 24, that was mostly because they got two TDs in the 4th quarter while the Steelers were already riding a comfortable lead.

Finally, the Steelers have also been able to get two very solid performances from Ben Roethlisberger who has no interceptions, 255 yards and a TD against the Ravens who gave up just 175.5ypg, and an efficient 17-26, 186 yard, 1 TD game against the Chargers while riding a 27 carry 146 yard outing by Willie Parker.

The Downside on Pittsburgh

The negatives for Pittsburgh are simple; If Ben Roethlisberger reverts to his at times erratic regular season play which got him 15 INTs, a low 59.9% completion percentage, and an 80.1 QB rating, then that would most likely produce a loss, as it would for many teams. But the bigger issue is that is the kind of thing that the Cardinals have been using to fuel their remarkable post season run, so if it happens, it will most likely be “Bye-bye Steelers.”

And even though Pittsburgh has used their defense to overcome much of the bad play from Roethlisberger, they might be hard-pressed to “stay in the game” with their defense if they aren’t sufficiently complemented by their offense. The Cardinals passing attack, ranked 2nd in the regular season with 292.1ypg, has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down in these playoffs. Even with their more balanced approach by going to the run more often, they are still managing 256.6 yards per game in the air.

Finally, the X factor is the two weeks of rest that Anquan Boldin is getting before the big game. With Arizona being able to produce this kind of yardage without him thus far, the return of Boldin can help balance things out against that 1st ranked passing defense of the Steelers.

So, once again, Big Ben doesn’t need to have an outstanding game, but will most likely need to play well, because the Cardinals should still be able to get “theirs” through the air in this contest.

Conclusion

If any quarterback is going to be less prone to suffer a let down, it should be Kurt Warner, as he has yet to throw a game away all season. I still see him throwing an INT, but one INT does not destroy a team’s hope depending at what point in the game it is thrown. Ben Roethlisberger has looked very mediocre at times this season, and very superb at other times specifically late in games. He would definitely like to make up for his 2005 Super Bowl performance where he went 9-21, 123yds, 2 INTs, and had a paltry 22.6 quarterback rating.

Solely because of this notion (that Ben wants to make up for his first Super Bowl and has admitted that to the media) I should be picking the Steelers to win this game. However, I just don’t see the fire in the eyes of any of the Steelers like I see in the eyes of Kurt Warner (which will be instilled into his young team in the huddle and on the sideline). I just feel that the “just another game” approach for the Steelers is a bit too close to the lackadaisical side, and I think Big Ben feels that saying he wants to make up for his appearance is enough. I.E., he won’t.

The Steelers could end up looking like a team baffled at the energy of their opponent, and the wake up call may come too late. Cardinals win convincingly, if not handily.

From one "turd" nest to another, the Atlanta Falcons head to Arizona this Saturday January 3rd to face off against the Cardinals at 4:30pm.

The first game of Wild-Card Weekend features two teams that I’m sure many people would argue are “one-and-done” teams. However, the fact is, one of these one-and-doners will definitely be advancing with the question of course being who.

The Atlanta Falcons do not have too much upside defensively. The only standout player this season was John Abraham who accounted for 47% of Atlanta’s 35 sacks with 16.5 total. That isn’t very good. That means of the other typical sackers on a standard NFL team, the three linebackers, the other defensive end, and perhaps the strong safety in some cases would have produced an average of 3.8 sacks a-piece. Too bad for the Falcons that Mr. Milloy, the strong safety, had none. Their 21^st ranked pass defense gave up 220.4 yards per game, and their 25^th ranked run D gave up 127.5 yards per game.

That type of passing defense won’t bode well against a quarterback in Kurt Warner who threw for over 4,500 yards this season. As far as the Falcons run defense goes, I guess that isn’t too bad as the Cardinals rush offense was good for last with 73.6 yards per game, meaning if they just don’t screw up any assignments and miss any tackles, they should be able to post a solid to admirable effort against the run.

But Edgerin James against the Seahawks this week amassed 100 yards on 14 carries. He has been off this season, but he perhaps could be trying to prove that he still has some gas left in the tank since that was his first game in a while, and if there was ever a game for him to do so, this could be it. And I know the argument can be that he did it against Seattle, but with a 25^th ranked run defense, the Falcons aren’t much better. Who knows? Maybe the Cards will run a two-back system with James and Tim Hightower, and they could stay fresh and get a couple decent gainers here and there.

On the flipside of things, the Cardinals defense gave up 26.6 points per game. Most teams wouldn’t even stand a chance at being in contention in the finals weeks of most regular NFL seasons with that kind of defense, but luckily for the Cardinals, they played in a bad division. On top of that, Arizona’s pass D was 22^nd giving up 221.2 yards per game. But the worst part is that their run defense, who faces Michael Turner (1,699 yards and 2^nd in the NFL), was 16^th giving up 110.2 yards per game.

The Falcons MO all year has been to give the ball to Turner as much as possible so that Matt Ryan only needs to make 2-3 good or big plays a game, usually to Roddy White who was fourth among all wide receivers with 1,382 yards and had seven of Ryan’s 16 total TDs.

The bottom line is, with the virtually identical defenses of both teams, if the Matt Ryan-led Falcons had more experience under their belt, this game would have had the makings for an Atlanta win as they could have grinded out the run game and kept the passes to a minimum as the Arizona run game and run defense has basically been non-existent for most of the season.

However… I just have to go with Kurt Warner’s will, experience, two stud wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, and the home crowd to come out on top. The tandem of Boldin and Fitzgerald are enough to make up for not having a running game against a young team like Atlanta. I think Matt Ryan is just too young to take this game, and for all the criticism that the Cardinals have received in losing four of their last five games, it is almost like Kurt Warner gets to start off fresh again. And I say this because in their recent losses, the Cardinals were getting blown out early to the point where Warner didn’t need to bother even trying the rest of whatever game they were playing. And if convention says that players need to stay hot going into the post season, I don’t see that as being the case here with Kurt Warner.

Basically, both teams are not looking like Super Bowl contenders, and ultimately, when it comes down to two “one-and-done” type teams, you gotta go with the guys playing at home and especially with having the more experienced quarterback. Cardinals win.

Kyle

This rookie better play within himself this weekend if his team is going to win.Steve Smith are number one in the NFC South, but must win to remain as such.Look for Kurt Warner to light it up some more this weekend at home against Dallas

The first game that holds some bearing is the 3-2 Bears at the 3-2 Falcons. Both teams have a chance to be 4-2 and both surprises in the league. Kyle Orton looks a little better and his defense is strong as ever, while the Falcons play inspired football with solid play from a rookie QB, Matt Ryan, and a first time fulltime starter at RB, Michael Turner. The defense has John Abraham, but not much else. Huge game for the NFC playoff race! I will have to go with the Bears experience on this one.

Baltimore plays host to Indianapolis. Both are 2-2 and need to get above .500. The Ravens’ defense may be tight, but the Colts’ defense has not been too bad without Bob Sanders, and Peyton Manning is something else compared to Joe Flacco. Colts win.

Carolina will be in Tampa Bay where both teams at 4-1 battle to lead the NFC South. The Bucs offense has been trifle even though they still have a solid defense. The Panthers combine solid defense with above average offense. I’ll take the Panthers.

Finally, Dallas, 4-1, will meet Arizona, 3-2, on the road. Although the Cowboys have a stronger defense, I am going with the Cardinals to pull off the upset. The Cowboys may boast a powerful offense, but the Cardinal offense can be just as potent. I just have a feeling that Kurt Warner and his team are confident and excited to play the Cowboys who will be caught sleeping.

These are the best games between teams based on records of wins and losses.