Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens Playoff Primer

In this week, the Divisional Playoff Round of the NFL, hearts are truly broken. In my mind, there is nothing more embarrassing than being a bye team and losing your first game. It is almost as if all the good your team did was all-for-not, and similarly, for the road team, it means you were only good enough to win in the Wild Card round. The first game of Divisional Round weekend will feature the Baltimore Ravens attempting to go down to Tennessee to pull off a huge road victory.

 

Advantage Ravens

 

Once again, the Ravens Defense will be the phase of their game to rely on; 3^rd in the league in points allowed (15.2), 2^nd in yards (261.1ypg), 2^nd in passing (179.7ypg), and 3^rd against the run (81.4ypg). The stinginess of their defense showed up profusely in their Saturday victory in Miami against the Dolphins as they forced Chad Pennington into throwing four interceptions, when he had only seven up until that point. On top of that, they also forced a fumble which they recovered.

 

What is even more is they rank higher in almost every major category defensively than the Titans; 7^th in yards (293.6ypg), 9^th in passing (199.8ypg), and 6^th against the run (93.9ypg). The Titans beat them in points per game at 14.6, but that is only for a difference of 0.6 points.

 

Aside from the Ravens defense, the performance of Joe Flacco in his first ever playoff game should pay huge dividends for Baltimore as he now goes into his second. In that game, his numbers were far from solid; 9-23 with 135 yards. That was only good for a slunky 39% completion. But if there are any underlying factors in his performance, it was obviously the fact he committed no turnovers, and amazingly, averaged 15.0 yards per completion. What this suggests was that when he actually did find the right target, it was a big play.

 

He already had the one playoff game where he saw his defense carry him. Now he knows if he can just step it up a bit, and with his defense playing like it can, that his team is in prime position for success.

 

Advantage Titans

 

The difference between the Miami pass defense (25^th at 227.8ypg) and the Tennessee pass defense (9^th at 199.8ypg) is 16 spots in the rankings. If Joe Flacco cannot increase his completion percentage, and is forced to throw the ball more against the Titans solid rushing defense, then the Ravens could be in for a long day. Maybe even the type that sees Flacco performing somewhat like Pennington did.

 

After that, Kerry Collins threw seven interceptions on the season, ass opposed to Flacco’s 12. But sadly, that seems to be the only advantage that the Titans could have over the Ravens. And too bad for them Joe Flacco hasn’t been prone to throwing games away this season. Oh… and we also saw what happened to the last quarterback the Ravens faced who only three seven regular season INTs.

 

Conclusion

 

We already know that the Ravens have better defense. But what is even more is the fact that their offense isn’t too far off either. In total yards per game the Ravens are 18^th at 324, and the Titans 21^st at 313.6. Although the Titans are 27^th passing (172.6), versus the Ravens 28^th ranking (175.5), it is for a difference of 0.7 yards making them virtually equal in that aspect. The real kicker comes in the Ravens 4^th ranked rush offense at 148.5 yards per game against the Titan’s 7^th place ranking at 137.4 yards per game. The Ravens, as a matter of fact, even score more points per game with 24.1, against the Titans, 23.4. However, that points per game number is also for a mere difference of 0.7.

 

The real deciding factor offensively is going to be the Ravens stronger running game, and better play-making defensively. I also predict another deciding factor to be the performance of young Joe Flacco against that of old Kerry Collins. Their stat lines, although similar, are leaving one thing out. Where as last week I mentioned the experience of Kurt Warner would take over that of Matt Ryan’s, this week it will be the youth of Flacco over Collins. Warner is still a dynamic quarterback. Whereas Flacco and Collins roles in their team’s offenses is to manage the game and not turn the ball over, for Flacco it is more to help ease his transition as a rookie quarterback, and for Collins it is because he is on the downside of his career.

 

But aside from all this, the most telling stat is the following. The combined records of the Tennessee Titans regular season opponents was 92-115, and the Ravens was 123-94. This just tells me that the Ravens have been having their mettle tested a lot more often than the surprising Titans up to this point.

 

Ravens move to within one victory of the Super Bowl.

Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens Playoff Primer

Game number three of Wild-Card weekend will feature two teams that had surprise turnarounds from last season. But of the two teams, the biggest surprise was last season’s hapless 1-15 Miami Dolphins doing a complete 180 with an 11-5 record this season while also earning the AFC East title. The Ravens, although always strong defensively, are nothing short of surprising either as they went from 5-11 last year to 11-5 this year. What makes their turnaround so remarkable was that they did it with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, and if it weren’t for injuries to both Kyle Boller and Troy Smith before week one, Joe Flacco may not have gotten his first start until later in the season and who knows what happens. With that being said, let’s take a look at the key phases of each team’s game.

Ravens’ Advantage

Both team’s offenses seem to even one another out. The Dolphins score 21.6 points per game and the Ravens 24.1 points per game. Although the Dolphins average only 118.6 yards on the ground to the Ravens 148.5, Miami out-throws Baltimore by a tune of 227 yards per game to 175.5. This shows that the Ravens outrun the Dolphins by 29.9 yards per game, and the Dolphins pass for 51.5 yards more than the Ravens.

Even with that being said, conventional wisdom shows that the team with the better running game will win. And that should be the case here. What’s even more is that the Ravens are 3^rd defensively against the run at 81.4ypg, and a whopping 2^nd versus the pass giving up 179.7ypg. The problem the Dolphins have, even though they get to play in the confines of their home stadium, is that they are 25^th against the pass at 227.8ypg, and 10^th versus the run at 101.2ypg. In all respects, giving up 101.2 yards a game on the ground is not that bad, but when the duo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams is good for a great total of 1,575 yards, and the Ravens trio of Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain, and Ray Rice combined for an outstanding number like 2,028, then not only are the Ravens defending the run better, but they are carrying the ball better as well.

Dolphins’ Advantage

Even though the Ravens outweigh the Dolphins in some key statistical categories necessary for playoff success, they have not been very good on the road playing against the projected playoff teams in the pre-season; at Indianapolis they lost 3-31, at the Giants they lost 10-30. Their only strong points against what were considered playoff teams were at Pittsburgh when they lost in OT 20-23, at the Dolphins when they won 27-13, and finally, when they beat Dallas 33-24.

Allow me to downplay. The Steelers and Ravens are diehard division rivals and always play each other tough. The Cowboys game had two aberration type plays on the Ravens final two drives; an 82 yard scoring run followed by a 77 yard scoring run. Any team would be lucky to get a run of either of those lengths all season long. Last but not least, when the Ravens beat the Dolphins in Miami in week 7, it dropped the Dolphins’ record to 2-4. Since then, Miami has gone 9-1 and are playing at a slightly different level than that period of time.

The other thing the Dolphins have going for them is that they had the fewest turnovers in the league with only 13. Chad Pennington had arguably his best season since his first ever rotator-cuff injury with a career-high 3,653 yards, 19 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions while completing 67.4 percent of his passes. Rookie QB Joe Flacco, although he had a great season for a rookie, 2,971 yards, 14 TDs, 12 INTs (not to mention his eleven fumbles) and completed 60.0 percent of his passes, he is still a rookie and is definitely mistake-prone.

Like one analyst put it… “What the Ravens thrive on, the Dolphins simply don’t do”… turn the ball over!

Conclusion

Although the Dolphins play at home, and are riding the emotional high an unprecedented successful season and comeback year of Chad Pennington, I have to go with the Ravens. They can negate their opponent’s run, and kill them with their own. Furthermore, Joe Flacco is quickly being molded into the confident game manager who can make a few plays here and there that Baltimore has been looking for. I only see Joe Flacco having, at the most, one turnover, and with their 2^nd ranked total defense (261.1ypg) and 3^rd ranked defense in points given up per game (15.2), the Ravens can easily overcome it. I cannot see a team who beat squads like Seattle without QB Matt Hasselbeck by two points, Oakland by two points as well, San Francisco by five, all at home, and Saint Louis by four on the road beating this gritty Ravens team.

Ravens will move on to play the one-seeded Tennessee Titans next week.

NFL Playoff Outlook

With just two weeks of play left in the regular season of the 2008-2009 year, a few teams have locked up a spot in the playoffs while others are still fighting to make it. What is about to unfold in this article is, what are in my mind, the teams that will make it.

We already know the Steelers and Titans have locked up spots and first round byes in the AFC. In the NFC the Giants have clinched their division while the Cardinals have as well. First I will go over the locks to get in.

In the AFC the only sure-fire lock I have is the Indianapolis Colts. If they beat Jacksonville this Thursday in Florida, they’re in. With the way the Jags have disappointed, I do not even see them using the rivalry bug as added motivation to beat Indianapolis.

In the NFC, surprisingly, the Carolina Panthers have not clinched even with an 11-3 record, which is a testament to the competitiveness of the NFC. However, one more win or one more loss from another team or two would put them in. The Cowboys have been hot lately. I don’t care about Romo’s performance in Pittsburgh. The game was still close, and it has been their only slip up since his return from injury. They face the Ravens at home, and Eagles in Philadelphia. The Eagle game should be tough and they easily can lose, but to me, I think all of the air got sucked out of the Raven team with their last minute loss to Pittsburgh last weekend.

The Vikings should clinch their division as the Bears face the Packers on Monday Night at home, but then travel to Houston the last week. Houston is on pace to finish up 9-7 and Andre Johnson should be able to shred their weak pass defense.

After that I don’t think Tampa will get in as they have slipped up and their weaknesses are beginning to be exposed. The Falcons and Eagles to me will be the ones to fighting for the 6th seed in the NFL as they have both been consistent as of late.

Back in the AFC, I’ll take the Patriots to win their division. They are at home against the Cardinals who have clinched, and then at a bum Buffalo team. That would put them at 11-5. The reason I see this happening is because the as-of-late inconsistent Jets should lose in Seattle this weekend, and the Dolphins will beat the Kansas City Chiefs. But when they play each other in New York, I’ll take a last-ditch effort by Favre to even their records at 10-6, giving one of them the 6th seed.

The only seed I am unsure of is the 4th seed in the AFC as the Broncos are 8-6 and Chargers 6-8. If the Chargers beat Tampa Bay in Tampa this weekend, which is not an oversight, and the Broncos lose at home to the Bills, which is still a bit of a stretch even if the Broncos aren’t so consistent, then they will be playing in San Diego for the division in week 17. If that happens, I’ll take the Chargers.

So that’s how I believe the “tournament” brackets will be set up come January.

Third Quarter NFL Contenders

The NFL has hit its third quarter mark, and after twelve of the most up-and-down weeks of football in recent history, it is still a bit of a stretch to call anybody a true lock for the Super Bowl save for the New York Giants. However, there are still a few teams that are definitely pulling away from most others as viable Super Bowl contenders.

 

The first team, resoundingly, is the Giants. This is the best team in the league as far as everyone being on the same page. They have shown great depth to overcome almost all injuries, and even self-imposed gunshot wounds. Their one loss to the Browns in Cleveland where they went down by a score of 14 to 35 was a true head-scratcher. However, that game can definitely hold an asterisk for being an aberration since the Brownies have been terrible for the most part. The Giants have gone from a team with potential who plays on emotion, to a team that just flat out knows how to win. They are a well-oiled machine and are unphased by whatever distractions, whatever home field advantages their opponents have, and whichever fallen soldier opponents might be playing for.

 

The second team that comes to mind in my view is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their loss to the Eagles was just one of those days where nothing goes good offensively. They had a slump against the two Manning led teams but seem to have their act together as they have won convincingly for the most part ever since.

 

A team like the Jets had their slumps early on against teams like Oakland where they lost 16-13, and only scored ten points at home against the Patriots, then rip off a five game winning streak, blow out the previously undefeated Titans in Tennessee, and suffer another inexcusable slump to the no-defense Broncos at home losing 34-17. That is not the stuff of a contender, but rather a team with potential but a little too inconsistent to have faith in.

 

My next team is the Baltimore Ravens. Say what you want about their rookie quarterback. They are playing lights out and beating opponents they are supposed to beat the way the good teams are supposed to… big. They have had their share of slumps, namely a 30-10 loss to the Giants, and a 31-3 loss to the Colts. However, they already took Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania to OT and lost 20-23, but that was in just the fourth week of young Joe Flacco’s already budding career. If the Ravens get into the playoffs and meet up with the Colts or Giants again, it should be a lot closer as typically, second meetings between two teams in the same season are rarely ever a duplicate of the first meeting. Oh, and don’t count them out to win the AFC North as they still get Pittsburgh one last time for sure at home in two weeks and trail the Steelers by just one game.

 

After the Ravens, the Colts should not be overlooked. They keep finding ways to win, and a handful of those wins were handed to them. However, that kind of luck coupled with their post season experience can be a bad omen for their opponents come playoff time if they get in. And yes, I am counting luck as a factor. They have shown the kind of luck that is too good to be true, i.e. Titans, Steelers, and Browns games.

 

After that, I would say the Cowboys are the sleeper. They slumped big time early on. They did not have their act together as they seemed to display the heir of a team who already saw themselves in the Super Bowl. Now with their backs against the wall, they are looking like that kind of team again.

 

As for other squads like the Panthers and Bucs, their efforts are certainly admirable, but their quarterbacks, Jake Delhomme and Jeff Garcia respectively, are just too inconsistent. The Arizona Cardinals are like the Saints… great passing attack and not much more. The only difference is their division stinks. The one team that could be close to a contender is the Atlanta Falcons. They are moving milestones ahead in their rebuilding process at 8-4, and are perhaps one or two more productive seasons, and a good losing post season experience away from becoming a perennial contender.

 

Other than that, all of the other teams are just a little too consistent for my blood.

Week 10 NFL Picks

DEN 4-4 at CLE 3-5

 

This one is a true toss-up. The Bronco defense is atrocious, and the Browns have Brady Quinn starting. Inexperience surrounded by some talent and a home crowd versus a lost, but not found defense, wins the game.

 

NO 4-4 at ATL 5-3

 

It seems as though now the Falcons have become a team that is consistent at what they do. Not to say what they do makes them an elite team. However, the things they are doing are playing solid and potentially explosive offense and better defense than the Saints. Falcons win.

 

TEN 8-0 at CHI 5-3

 

Rex Grossman is in, and that doesn’t look good for Chicago. Plus their defense has had a tendency to let opponents back in the game and put up some solid numbers. But I feel Kerry Collins has been getting lucky as the Packers and Colts, the Titans two previous opponents respectively, have eached let three interceptions slip away. The Bears don’t let those kinds of opportunities pass by, Grossman has something to prove, the Bears are at home… Bears hand Titans their first loss.

 

JAC 3-5 at DET 0-8

 

The Jags continue to play to the level of their opponent. The Lions have been getting closer to their first win of the season. Can they do it against the Jags? Not so optimistic. But with Jack Del Rio questioning his team’s chemistry, and upset is in the making. However, I believe the Jags will get their act together in this one and win.

 

BAL 5-3 at HOU 3-5

 

The Ravens defense gave up a lot of yardage and points last week to the Browns, but they are familiar with the Ravens as they play in the same division. On the other side, the Texans look good in some games, and don’t continue their production even in their losses. Ravens win with Joe Flacco seeming to get more comfortable as the weeks go by.

 

SEA 2-6 at MIA 4-4

 

Miami looks a like a squad that is truly building an identity, while the ‘Hawks are failing to give Mike Holmgren a going-away party to be proud of. Dolphins win easily at home.

 

BUF 5-3 at N.E. 5-3

 

New England looked solid against the Colts last Sunday night, as did Matt Cassel. The Bills show their true colors as a team that started 4-0 due to a soft schedule and a visiting west coast team in the Chargers. Pats win.

 

STL 2-6 at NYJ 5-3

 

Brett Favre is still mistake prone, but with the way the Rams played last weekend, I think the Jets can afford some mistakes in this one. Jets win.

 

CAR 6-2 at OAK 2-6

 

Boy do the Raiders ever look like trash. They have two wins, and yet the Lions and Bengals are much more competitive than they are as of late. The “under the radar” Panthers win easy.

 

IND 4-4 at PIT 6-2

 

Both teams had big wins last week that boosted confidence after big losses the week prior. However, Pittsburgh’s “Blitzburgh” defense is hitting it’s stride and coming into its own. Steelers win at home, with either Roethlisberger or Leftwich at the helm.

 

K.C. 1-7 at S.D. 3-5

 

What better way for the Chargers to get healthy this weekend than a date at home against the Chiefs. Even though the Chiefs showed spirit last week, they’ll still lose to the Chargers.

 

NYG 7-1 at PHI 5-3

 

The Eagles may be returning to form, but the fact remains that the Giants are a better team all around. Giants win despite the Eagles being at home.

 

S.F. 2-6 at ARI 5-3

 

What a shame this game had to be on Monday Night Football. Too bad they can’t move the schedule around on Mondays. Cardinals win, and San Fran will not be mustering any “Monday Night Magic.”

Undefeated Teams in the NFL look to Remain Unscathed

By Alex V

Lots of teams start off 2-0 and then don’t end up virtually doing crap the rest of the season. Take the 49ers from last year for instance; they began last season a promising 2-0, and then proceeded to, dare I say, “rip” off eight great losses thereafter before finishing their season 4-12. So let’s find out who this year’s 2-0’s are last year’s 49ers, and who looks to get it goin to 3-0 when all is said and done this coming Sunday.

The first team on the docket is the 2-0 Arizona Cardinals. They are coming off a convincing

victory over Miami last weekend, when, perhaps, the new Greatest Show on Turf (Boldin, Fitzgerald and Warner) blasted the Dolphins for a 31-10 final, and a rocky start but strong finish in week one against… you guessed it, San Francisco! They won that game 23-13. Their opponent, the Washington Redskins, found some life this weekend pulling out a come-from-behind win against the Saints while putting up 29 points. But the Cardinals with a healthy Kurt Warner are looking like locks against the lower-tier teams. However, Washington has seemed to have this team’s number, even since the days when they used to be in the same division. Plus beating the Saints kinda takes them to that level between lower-tier and competitive. I’ll go with the Redskins to continue that tradition for at least one more match up since they play at home, and the Cardinals beat two teams that finished a combined 5-28 last season.

The next match up to go over is New England against Miami. They play at home against Miami… I honestly do no want to say anything else about this game, but for the sake of professionalism, I’ll utter a few words. Miami does not look like they’re rebuilding with Chad Pennington, and New England is too savvy, minus the inexperienced, if not promising, Matt Cassel, to let one slip against the Dolphins. New England moves to 3-0.

The New York Giants are looking great overall as a team with every phase being above average; the passing game is spreading the ball around, running game is getting great yardage out of its starter in Brandon Jacobs, as well as Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward, plus the defense is stopping the run, and disrupting the opponents passing game while the special teams

play is solid. The Bengals offense has managed to produce 17 points in two games culminating to an average of less than ten per outing. Their defense has been average, which isn’t terrible, but when you aren’t scoring because your run game doesn’t scare anyone, and your Quarterback plays like he knows his team stinks, well then it’s hard to win games. But that’s not even it. The Bengals just flat out don’t even look like they care. Giants win and remain undefeated. Plus they’re at home this weekend… ‘nuff said.

Houston is at 2-0 Tennessee this weekend. Houston has played one game, and lost. Tennessee has played two games, and won them both. Although Tennessee and Houston are both looking to improve from promise they showed last year, the Titans showed higher promise finishing 10-6 and making the playoffs, while the Texans finished 8-8. This game could be close because of the obvious division rivalry, but I give the edge to the Titans who will remain unbeaten.

Carolina has been pulling off last minute victories the past two weeks like it’s their damn job. They’re becoming the “Cardiac Cats” of their 2003 Super Bowl run once again. This weekend they play against the Vikings in Minnesota. Although you shouldn’t overlook the Vikings (if you’re a smart football enthusiast) because of their hard-fought losses versus Green Bay in week one and Indianapolis last week, I still gotta go with the Panthers experience and return of Steve Smith. They are on the road, but aside from getting to Minnesota, they’ll get to 3-0 as well. What a sweet destination that is!

The Buffalo Bills are 2-0 as well and have the privilege of facing the Oakland Raiders at home this weekend. The Raiders actually looked like a little like a football team last week in smashing the Chiefs 23-8. But… Jamarcus Russell was a dismal 6 for 17 passing with only 55 yards. The Bills have improved enough to where a loss to the Raiders this weekend would look to be an upset. Bills go to 3-0.

The Broncos snuck a win out against the Chargers with that bullshit no-call on the fumble by

Jay Cutler, but a win is a win. The Saints must prove not to be the Aints. But, they’re going a

mile higher into Denver. I gotta pick the Broncos, and not cause they’re at home, but because with Cutler in the line-up they’ve improved steadily from last year up until this point. The Saints have been up and down since the beginning of last season and now 2008 as well.

Pittsburgh is 2-0. Philly scored like crazy on Monday Night Football putting up 30 points on offense (with the other seven coming off a Tony Romo fumble that turned into a recovery in the End zone by the Eagles). The Steelers have to go into Philadelphia to remain 3-0. When it comes to evading tackles and chucking the ball for big gains and/or crucial 3^rd down conversions, the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger and the Eagles’ Donovan McNabb are two of the best. But, the Steelers are more consistent with their running game, and are usually un-phased on the road (scrap any indication of their 3-5 road record from last season meaning anything for this season. As far as I am concerned, they lost four actual meaningful road games as their fifth road loss came in week 17 against the Ravens when the Steelers had locked up a playoff spot and were playing for nothing. The Steelers did what playoff teams do… win at home, where they were 7-1, and perform decently on the road.). Donovan McNabb is, at times, flustered when playing against a 3-4 defense, so I give the edge to the Steelers to improve to 3-0.

The last teams with a chance to go undefeated are the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers. This is one of the toughest games of the week to call. It would be a lot easier for me to call if it were at 1:00pm or even one of the 4 o’clock games. If that were the case I would pick Dallas as they have everything Green Bay does; solid defense, playmakers in the running game and passing game, except… Romo is a more proven quarterback than Aaron Rodgers. However, due to the fact that this game is on Sunday Night Football in Green Bay, I go with the Packers to be 3-0 and the Cowboys to be 2-1. But there is one more reason I have to go with Green Bay; Aaron Rodgers has been playing with a chip on his shoulder in the two games this season so far. I have no doubt in my mind he knows that losing this game, or at least a bad performance, could quickly raise any doubts that he had erased with his wonderful performances in weeks 1 and 2. That psyche is enough for me to say that the Packers will win again this weekend.

So there you have my predictions for who will remain undefeated after week 3. There are 10 teams with the chance to improve to 3-0, and two of them, the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers, barring a tie, are guaranteed to lose. The interesting thing is that based on the match ups, many of them could remain unbeaten. Can’t wait to see what happens!