Olympics End but Great Hockey Continues

A week ago today the world saw one of the best hockey games in quite some time and certainly the best game of the Olympic tournament. Despite tremendous tenacity expressed by the Americans it was hockey king Canada led by Sidney Crosby who left the Vancouver games with the Gold Medal. Crosby’s overtime goal marked the end of a fantastic two weeks of hockey that produced a plethora of unpredictable moments. While it was the Canadians who climbed to the top of the mountain, in the end the real winners were hockey fans the world over. So I take this time to congratulate the Canadians on their victory, to salute the game of hockey generally, and to bid farewell to what was an awesome two weeks of hockey.

With the Olympics now behind us we transition from one set of great hockey to another as the NHL stretch run goes into full swing. As it stands today spots 6 through 11 in the Eastern Conference are separated by a total of four points while the battle for the 7^th and 8^th spots in the West is an even tighter race. Over the next few weeks we’ll find out who made the right moves at the trade deadline and who should have done more. We’ll see if upstart Phoenix can Colorado (back to glory days depicted above?) can keep their level of play high enough to maintain playoff positions as it is a new concept for both of these teams as assembled today. Can the Detroit Red Wings manage to solidify a playoff spot or will they be left out for the first time since dinosaurs roamed the earth? Did the Pittsburgh Penguins add enough new faces to their lineup to sure up any deficiencies they may have had to put them into the team to beat in the East? Have the Washington Capitals finally addressed their defensive woes enough to catapult themselves into the category of serious cup contenders? Why didn’t Boston—who was top seed in the East last year—not do more to address their inability to score? All the while who will score more goals before season’s end Alex Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby? Each of these questions will be answered over the next month  and that means hockey fans are going to be spoiled from now until the end of the Stanley Cup Finals in June. So gear up puckheads because this is going to be awesome!

Russia/Canada Eye Olympic Gold

The Winter Olympics were officially opened on Friday and starting Monday the NHL takes a backseat to the biggest hockey tournament in the world. With that in mind we’ll preview that tournament and let you know who the medal contenders are and of course give a prediction.

The tournament consists of 12 teams split into three groups of four as follows:

Group A – Canada; United States; Switzerland; Norway

Group B – Russia; Czech Republic; Slovakia; Latvia

Group C – Sweden; Finland; Belarus; Germany

Each team in a given group plays the other teams once in a round-robin after which the top team from each group plus the fourth best team remaining are given byes into the quarter-finals while the remainder of the teams play a preliminary playoff round to determine who will play those four top teams. Conventional wisdom says that only six of these teams has any real shot at the podium namely Canada, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Sweden, Russia, and the United States (perhaps Finland can slip in their too but it’s unlikely). In a tournament like this where every team qualifies for the elimination round it only takes one good game from a “lesser” team to upset the balance which is part of what makes this such an exciting event. With that said we’ll focus on the six, possibly seven, teams who are likely to be in serious medal contention starting with the hosting Canadians.

Considered by many to be the favorites to win the gold in Vancouver the Canadians have an incredibly talented roster (see http://proicehockey.about.com/od/olympichockey/a/2010-canada-roster.htm for full roster) and will be sound in every facet of the game. With a team this strong there is really no meaningful technical analysis that can be done to assess how they will finish. For Canada their biggest issues will be staying healthy and more importantly handling the pressure from the home crowd and media because they will be fully expected to win the gold medal with anything less being considered a failure. I think Canada’s greatest advantage will be their biggest downfall in that the crowd will be with them and that’s always helpful but if things do not go exactly as planned the pressure is going to mount big time and likely lead to Canada cracking under the pressure. It’s not so much because the players can’t handle the expectations as much as the pressure will cause them to play cautiously at times and the Russians (who I think will win the gold) will not have the same pressure on them so they can play loosely and seize the moments Canada plays tight resulting in disappointment for the whole country as they take the silver medal.

As for Russia they too have such a great roster together that technically there is little to speak of but there are some weaknesses for Russia. First off the biggest head-scratcher for them is that they have so many KHL players on their roster who were chosen over some NHL guys who could have (and perhaps should have) been on the team. Not only will these guys have a tough time adjusting to the North American ice size and style of play but in the opinion of most simply are not as talented as their NHL counterparts. Despite possibly diluting their talent pool the Russians still have a ton of fire power on their s squad (see http://www.2010tracker.com/2009/12/25/russia-announces-olympic-mens-hockey-team-roster/ for full roster) which can certainly outscore anyone at even strength but also results in them having an incredibly good power play unit. Teams will have to be concerned with every penalty they take because the Russians are likely to make you pay for almost any power play opportunity given to them. Their goal scoring prowess along with some great play in net will likely lead Russia to the Gold medal in this tournament. (It also doesn’t hurt that they have won two World Championships in a row).

The remainder of the top six are likely only going to be in contention for the Bronze medal (as long as the match-ups work out so that Russia and Canada end up meeting in the final).

Starting with team Sweden; although the Swedes are the defending Olympic champions their team looks good on paper but is an aged group of players and it is unlikely they will be able to keep pace with Canada or Russia but those teams aside the Swedes can make some hey against everyone else and that is why they are my favorite to take the Bronze.

Perhaps on the opposite end of the spectrum is team USA who has a very talented team but are very young (see http://proicehockey.about.com/od/olympichockey/a/2010-usa-roster.htm for full roster). It is unlikely that a team so lacking in experience can make a serious challenge for Silver or Gold but the strength of the rest of the field puts them squarely in the middle of the race for the Bronze medal. All team USA needs is to have their guys play reasonably well and have Ryan Miller steal a couple of games for them in the medal round to have a legitimate shot at the Bronze medal. Although the Bronze medal would be great for the Americans a fourth or fifth place finish would be quite an accomplishment for this upstart squad.

The Czech Republic has a very formidable roster assembled with a number of NHL players led by former NHLer and current KHL all-star Jaromir Jagr (see http://bleacherreport.com/articles/123948-2010-olympic-hockey-outlook-team-czech-republic for full roster). With the nice mix of young and veteran players the Czech Republic have to be considered co-favorites along with Sweden to grab the Bronze medal. The reason they are unlikely to make a push for the Gold is because they have a solid roster but no one really stands out on their team. Tomas Vokoun is probably their biggest star and while a goaltender can steal a game or two for you it would take that along with a star or two to carry the team any further than that and the Czechs simply do not have that.

The Slovakian team also has a fairly solid line-up just a step below the Czechs (see http://bleacherreport.com/articles/126346-2010-olympic-hockey-outlook-team-slovakia for full roster). And much like the Czechs the Slovakian squad lacks in big stars which hurts their chances to even compete for the Bronze medal. Their roster top to bottom is very solid but it’s pretty underwhelming with Zdeno Chara and Marian Hossa being their best players but Chara is a defensemen and Hossa is certainly not the player today he was even three years ago. So while a Bronze medal is a reasonable goal for this team they will likely not even be able to get that far and should probably be ready to accept a preliminary round win and that’s about it.

Those are my predictions but in such a short tournament just about anything can happen so it will be very exciting no matter what. Enjoy the games everybody, we’ll see you next time.

Top Teams Face Early-Round Exits

Coming down the stretch there have been a number of teams who are all but assured of playoff spots who have hit some turbulence. For example, New Jersey is in the middle of a six game losing streak, while teams in a similar position like Boston, San Jose, Calgary, Chicago, etc. have all hit similar rough patches in recent weeks. On the other hand teams who have been battling just to get into the playoffs (Pittsburgh, Carolina, St. Louis, Columbus, Vancouver to name a few) have really hit their stride as of late and are on their respective hot streaks. So what should be made of all of this? Well, quite frankly I think it’s great to have so many top teams becoming mediocre and teams working hard every night to get in getting so hot. That is because I think it will make for a very exciting and intriguing first round. No matter what the match-ups are there is going to be potential for a lot of upsets with a lot of teams with home-ice advantage finding themselves in a hole right off the bat. There are a lot of clichés to describe teams as being “battle-tested” or “playoff-ready” and while they may be true in a lot of cases (hence why they’re clichés) the intensity level of a team come playoff time is probably the biggest deal of all. As a result, what we’re seeing right now are a number of teams battling to get into the post-season playing with a high level of intensity. The players are hanging on every shift, every pass, every hit, every save, every goal; and that is exactly the mode you need to be in to be successful in the playoffs so it should be to their benefit to have been playing at such a high level for so long leading up to the playoffs. Meanwhile, the other top teams are muddling along just trying to “stay sharp” as their minds start to tire of the regular season and they begin to look ahead. By doing that the players are putting half-a** efforts into their playing which results in them losing their edge and can result in not just loses but a loss of focus and energy that can lead to injuries. All of that boils down to this; the teams who have been desperate will have that intensity level in the playoffs right away while the top teams will have a hard time just turning on that switch. By the time they do the series could be 2-0 heading into the other teams’ building and by that time the hill may be too big to climb resulting in plenty of first-round upsets.

Western Conference Race Heating Up

The second half is now upon us and the playoff races on both sides are heating up. The next two articles will preview the next 2 months telling you who’s in and who’s out. The West today, next time the East will be the focus.

In the West the top four are more or less in place with San Jose leading everyone by no less than 8 points steam rolling toward the playoffs and possibly the President’s Trophy. But as you look down toward the fifth seed it gets very interesting. The Anaheim Ducks are in sole possession of 5^th place with 55 points but are only ahead of sixth by two points where there are FIVE teams tied with 53 points with only three playoff spots to earn. Should it come to the point where a tie-breaker is needed to determine who survives this gridlock I’ll have it for you right here, but until then who needs the headache? So who is going to come out of this mess to participate in the second season? Under the assumption that San Jose, Detroit, Calgary, and Chicago will all make it (in what particular order it matters not, they’ll be the top 4 seeds) we’ll consider the lower half. Five through eight as of this moment (in order) look like this: 5. Anaheim, 6. Edmonton, 7. Dallas, 8. Minnesota. Columbus and Phoenix also have 53 points with Vancouver just behind with 52. To conclude this article is a brief write up on all seven teams remaining in the race and why they will or will not make the playoffs. But regardless of who gets in if you’re a fan of hockey then the next 2 and a half months are going to be incredible.

IN – Anaheim, Minnesota, Phoenix, Columbus

Out- Edmonton, Dallas, Vancouver

IN:

Anaheim – Despite a slow start, losing their general manager, and the aging almost before our eyes of every star on the team the one thing the Ducks did not lose was their hockey IQ. A team full of older guys who aren’t as talented as they once were and are not as physical as their Cup team from two years ago but they are all smarter than the next guy. So while teams are busy skating circles around the old guys dominating almost every moment of the game, come period three the “old guys” are still hanging around and next thing you know the Ducks are celebrating a win.

Minnesota – Defense, defense, defense, and more defense. Did I mention Minnesota plays great defense? When push comes to shove, that pesky neutral zone trap always prevails.

Phoenix – Gretzky has these guys playing like world beaters. And on the backs of Shane Doan the Coyotes can and will shock a lot of teams. Not only will they get in but if the match-up (I mean you Calgary) is right they’ll make some serious noise in April.

Columbus. Yes Rick Nash is awesome, and RJ Umberger provides a dynamic the Blue Jackets have lacked since their existence. But the key to their success is Steve Mason, his 1.98 GAA and .928 save percentage says it all. One and done? Yes, but this team will be good for many years to come.

OUT:

Edmonton – will somebody please score a goal? If you can’t score you can’t win, it’s not rocket science.

Dallas – Marty Turco has been doing it by himself for too long and now it’s finally wearing him down. When you have a GAA of 2.98 and a save percentage of .888 you’re getting NO help.

Vancouver –Luongo is fantastic but Mats Sundin is not the answer to your offensive problems and never will be. The Sedin twins just AREN’T THAT GOOD! Time to scrap this team and start over; what a waste of money.

Winter Classic Excitement

The NHL’s second Winter Classic is only two days away and the sports world should be in for a real treat. The Chicago Blackhawks have won 9 straight games and have recorded a point in each of their last ten. Not only is winning nine straight impressive but the Hawks have been putting away some very good teams including at home against Philadelphia and four road games against Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver and Minnesota. Chicago is getting great play from not just their big stars (Kane, Sharp, Toews, Campbell) but also from guys like defensemen Duncan Keith who has 18 points and is a plus 19 for the season. They are a solid team and are finally coming together to create what could be something very special not only in the years to come but this season in particular.

On January 1^st the Blackhawks welcome the Detroit Red Wings to Wrigley Field and rumor has it that the Red Wings are pretty good… Clearly the Red Wings are very good for not only are they the defending Stanley Cup champions but they are second in the West with 50 points trailing only the amazing San Jose Sharks who the Wings recently pummeled 6-0. Complimenting the Wings would take all day so I’ll just let mentioning names like Lindstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Hossa, and Frazen (among many others) do all the explaining themselves. Not only will the atmosphere be great but the hockey won’t be half bad either. The fans are hyped and the players are excited as face-off approaches. In two days the eyes of the hockey universe will be focused on Chicago, live at 1pm eastern time on NBC in the US and CBC and RDS in Canada. The wait… is almost over.

Sundin Back, Sharks Lose, Caps Roll and More

Lots of news, little time, let’s go around the league in a flash.

- Mats Sundin has finally decided on a team, he’s going to Vancouver. Great, now can we please stop talking about him?

- Detroit put a hurting on San Jose Thursday night 6-0. Be not afraid, the game means little because San Jose is still better than Detroit in the long run. I picked San Jose to win the Stanley Cup and I am not backing down now.

- My other finals pick (Montreal) ended Philly’s five game winning streak on Thursday in convincing fashion. Despite a few hick-ups the Canadiens’ season is going well so far. If Kovalev ever gets his scoring woes in order they will be in very good shape.

- The Pittsburgh Penguins scored 6 goals to defeat Atlanta by three on Thursday after a long lay-off. Any win for the Penguins right now is a good win but their defensive troubles continue to be a thorn in their side.
- Yes Boston has 22 wins and 48 points good enough for first in the east; however come playoff time it will be hard for their overachieving players to keep playing at this high of a level. Kudos to their play so far though.

- The Washington Capitals are on fire, winning their fifth in a row Thursday night and looking tremendous in every facet of the game: special teams, offense, defense, and goaltending. Washington is rolling… remember them come playoff time.

Roy, Clark Honored; Luongo Injured

Let me start by saying how great the respective ceremonies were honoring Patrick Roy and Wendel Clark. The Canadiens (Roy) and Maple Leafs (Clark) paid tribute quite appropriately to two guys’ who each left different marks on the game but both will have a positive impact on the world of hockey for many years to come. In other news it was a showcase day for the original six teams who were all on TV nationally in Canada on CBC’s Hockey Night In Canada and on the NHL Network in the U.S. with four of the six matching up against each other—Montreal vs. Boston and Chicago vs. Toronto. Both games were extremely entertaining as they each had one team come from behind late in the game to force overtime with the former being decided in a shootout. Although both home-standing teams lost I think it was fitting that two players were honored on a night that ended in a very exciting manner. The rest of the schedule was entertaining with six games being decided by one goal five needing overtime/a shootout to decide a winner. All-in-all it was a great day to be a hockey fan; the one low point however came in Vancouver’s 3-1 win at the Pittsburgh Penguins. In the first period netminder Roberto Luongo left the game with what appeared to be a substantial injury. We may never know what exactly is wrong with him due to the league’s new ridiculous nondisclosure policy but nevertheless it does not look good for one of the league’s best and most exciting goaltenders.