Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles Playoff Primer

The final game of Wild-Card weekend 2009 may be one of the toughest to predict. It exhibits two teams that struggled to secure playoff births, but at the same time are more than capable of advancing in the post season past the obvious win that one of them will be getting this weekend. The Eagles had blown a game in Washington against the Redskins in week 16 by a score of 10-3 to fall to a record of 8-6-1, and needed to beat the Cowboys in Philadelphia, and hope the Buccaneers and Bears would lose in week 17. Luckily for them, all three of those scenarios became a reality. As for the Vikings, they would have clinched the NFC North regardless, due to the Bears loss in Houston in week 17, but could guarantee the division title with a victory in the final week. Since they beat the Giants in Minnesota 20-19 on a last minute 50 yard field goal to finish 10-6, they were able to hold up their end of the bargain. Now what has unfolded for week 18 is a bout between two teams, one filled with wily veterans in Philadelphia, and another with a collection of young and perhaps budding talent in Minnesota.

 

Advantage Minnesota

 

One of the key factors that Minnesota can rely on to win this game is the fact that they own the league’s top rush defense giving up only 76.9 yards per game going up against an Eagles ground attack that ranked 22^nd with 106.1 yards per game. Couple that with the fact the Eagles were 4^th in the league in pass attempts and 22^nd in rushing yards with 106.1 per game, and the Vikings have a seldom-available luxury: the chance to play an opponent who is virtually one dimensional.

 

One of the most commonly preached strategies in defensive football is the ability to force an opponent to be one-dimensional, i.e. try to get the opponent to beat you with the pass by loading up the line of scrimmage with an eight-man front. What we have here is a team in Philadelphia who by preference already is one-dimensional and mainly likes to pass.

 

The second factor that helps the Vikings is the improved play of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson since he returned to the starting lineup. In his two games to start the season, he was 30-59, good for a 51 percent completion rate with one TD, while throwing for 178 and 130 yards respectively. Now, Jackson has risen to the occasion in the last three and a half games of the season posting 740 yards, 8 TDs, and only one interception while completing 64 percent of his passes. All this has provided the stability at the QB position the Vikings were looking for in Gus Frerotte.

 

Advantage Eagles

 

The Eagles strengths lie in their defense and experience. Even though the Vikings are sporting the 1^st ranked run defense, their pass defense is only 18^th in the league, giving up 215.6 yards per game. That does not match well with the defense of Philadelphia as they ranked 4^th in run defense, 92.2ypg, and 3^rd in total pass defense, 182.1ypg. That type of run defense is more-than solid and should be able to keep Adrian Peterson, the league’s top rusher with 1,760 yards, in check for the most part. And I stress “for the most part” as even though the Eagles rush D is just three spots behind the Vikings, Peterson is still the league’s leading rusher for a reason, and for that, I believe he will have at least one big run in the game.

 

What really stands out for the eagles defensively is their pass defense, because Jackson, although he has improved, is still only averaging 185 yards through the air in his return, which is only 2.9 yards more than what the eagles are giving up. This means that he could easily be limited to within 100-150 yards, and if the Vikings main threat is going to be one to, at the most, three big gainers from Peterson and only a game-management style of play by Jackson, things are not looking up.

 

Conclusion

 

Although the Vikings play at home this weekend, they face a veteran team in the Eagles who are more accustomed to playing in big games. Even if it took four straight NFC Championship games for Donovan McNabb to finally get his team to a Super Bowl, he is still much more playoff savvy than the young Tarvaris Jackson, as is the entire Eagles team. Although both teams are great at stopping the run, Philadelphia is averaging 244.4 yards per game through the air, and with the disparity in the rankings of the two clubs pass defenses being 15 spots (Vikings 18^th minus Eagles 3^rd equals 15), then that is where the true edge in this contest lies.

 

Eagles move on.

Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens Playoff Primer

Game number three of Wild-Card weekend will feature two teams that had surprise turnarounds from last season. But of the two teams, the biggest surprise was last season’s hapless 1-15 Miami Dolphins doing a complete 180 with an 11-5 record this season while also earning the AFC East title. The Ravens, although always strong defensively, are nothing short of surprising either as they went from 5-11 last year to 11-5 this year. What makes their turnaround so remarkable was that they did it with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, and if it weren’t for injuries to both Kyle Boller and Troy Smith before week one, Joe Flacco may not have gotten his first start until later in the season and who knows what happens. With that being said, let’s take a look at the key phases of each team’s game.

Ravens’ Advantage

Both team’s offenses seem to even one another out. The Dolphins score 21.6 points per game and the Ravens 24.1 points per game. Although the Dolphins average only 118.6 yards on the ground to the Ravens 148.5, Miami out-throws Baltimore by a tune of 227 yards per game to 175.5. This shows that the Ravens outrun the Dolphins by 29.9 yards per game, and the Dolphins pass for 51.5 yards more than the Ravens.

Even with that being said, conventional wisdom shows that the team with the better running game will win. And that should be the case here. What’s even more is that the Ravens are 3^rd defensively against the run at 81.4ypg, and a whopping 2^nd versus the pass giving up 179.7ypg. The problem the Dolphins have, even though they get to play in the confines of their home stadium, is that they are 25^th against the pass at 227.8ypg, and 10^th versus the run at 101.2ypg. In all respects, giving up 101.2 yards a game on the ground is not that bad, but when the duo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams is good for a great total of 1,575 yards, and the Ravens trio of Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain, and Ray Rice combined for an outstanding number like 2,028, then not only are the Ravens defending the run better, but they are carrying the ball better as well.

Dolphins’ Advantage

Even though the Ravens outweigh the Dolphins in some key statistical categories necessary for playoff success, they have not been very good on the road playing against the projected playoff teams in the pre-season; at Indianapolis they lost 3-31, at the Giants they lost 10-30. Their only strong points against what were considered playoff teams were at Pittsburgh when they lost in OT 20-23, at the Dolphins when they won 27-13, and finally, when they beat Dallas 33-24.

Allow me to downplay. The Steelers and Ravens are diehard division rivals and always play each other tough. The Cowboys game had two aberration type plays on the Ravens final two drives; an 82 yard scoring run followed by a 77 yard scoring run. Any team would be lucky to get a run of either of those lengths all season long. Last but not least, when the Ravens beat the Dolphins in Miami in week 7, it dropped the Dolphins’ record to 2-4. Since then, Miami has gone 9-1 and are playing at a slightly different level than that period of time.

The other thing the Dolphins have going for them is that they had the fewest turnovers in the league with only 13. Chad Pennington had arguably his best season since his first ever rotator-cuff injury with a career-high 3,653 yards, 19 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions while completing 67.4 percent of his passes. Rookie QB Joe Flacco, although he had a great season for a rookie, 2,971 yards, 14 TDs, 12 INTs (not to mention his eleven fumbles) and completed 60.0 percent of his passes, he is still a rookie and is definitely mistake-prone.

Like one analyst put it… “What the Ravens thrive on, the Dolphins simply don’t do”… turn the ball over!

Conclusion

Although the Dolphins play at home, and are riding the emotional high an unprecedented successful season and comeback year of Chad Pennington, I have to go with the Ravens. They can negate their opponent’s run, and kill them with their own. Furthermore, Joe Flacco is quickly being molded into the confident game manager who can make a few plays here and there that Baltimore has been looking for. I only see Joe Flacco having, at the most, one turnover, and with their 2^nd ranked total defense (261.1ypg) and 3^rd ranked defense in points given up per game (15.2), the Ravens can easily overcome it. I cannot see a team who beat squads like Seattle without QB Matt Hasselbeck by two points, Oakland by two points as well, San Francisco by five, all at home, and Saint Louis by four on the road beating this gritty Ravens team.

Ravens will move on to play the one-seeded Tennessee Titans next week.

San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts Playoff Primer

The night cap of day one on Wild-Card Weekend will have two teams on display that can light up the scoreboard. Whereas the Colts have reverted to a more proficient scoring style over the past few years with the peak-point maturity of Peyton Manning, the Chargers have remained a team that can put up points in bunches. This game should have all the makings of a contest that comes down to which team does the best with it’s last offensive drive, and a last chance hail-mary or “lateral push” doesn’t count.

 

Everyone knows that both teams have more-than capable and playoff-tested quarterbacks. Peyton Manning has practically carried his team whose run game which ranked 31^st in the league with a meager 79.6 yards per game, and was able to post his ninth 4,000 yard plus season with 4,002 yards, threw 27 touchdowns against a respectable twelve interceptions, while completing 66.8 percent of his passes. These numbers were good enough to earn him a 95.0 QB rating.

 

Philip Rivers, for San Diego, threw his way to his first ever 4,000 yard plus season with 4,009 yards. He also tied with New Orleans’ Drew Brees for the most touchdowns with 34, completed 65.3 percent of his passes with eleven interceptions. All this was good for a passer rating of 105.5 which was tops in the NFL. Much like Peyton Manning, he too had to overcome his teams dip in rushing stats as LaDainian Tomlinson went from 1,462, 1,815, and 1,474 yards in the past three years respectively to his lowest output ever in his storied eight year career at 1,110 yards with 3.8 yards per carry. In those previously mentioned seasons, he had 4.3, 5.2, and 4.7 yards per carry respectively. So this should be the beginning of the down-hill part of his career.

 

But even with that being said, the Chargers still gained 107.9 yards per game on the ground (20^th in the league, and eleven better than Indy’s 31^st) and even with his 2008 swoon, Tomlinson is still one of the most prolific rushers in the league. Furthermore, his production is still better than the Colt’s duo of Dominic Rhodes, 538ypg, 3.5ypc, and Joseph Addai, 544ypg, and also 3.5ypc. The two of them alone gained 1,082 yards. This isn’t good, as the Chargers second option, Darren Sproles, had 330ypg with 5.4ypc. If you combine his total with Tomlinson’s you’ll get 358 yards of extra ground over the two Indianapolis runners.

 

As far as defenses go, the Chargers were 27^th in the league versus the pass, giving up 247.4 yards per game. On the other hand, the Colts were very good with a 6^th rated passing defense giving up 188.1 yards per contest. As for the rushing defenses, the Chargers ranked 11^th and gave up a respectable 102.6 yards per game. With teams rarely giving every single carry to a feature back, 102.6 yards per game between two to three players isn’t terrible. The Colts, however, were 24^th, and they gave up 122.9 yards per outing. That kind of number suggests that their opponent’s feature back was typically able to get at least over 90 yards on his own. Seemingly, the Colts allowed seven of their opponent’s backs to gain over 90 yards to the Charger’s three.

 

Now for the X factors.

 

Both teams are entering the post-season on hot streaks; the Colts have won nine straight, and the Chargers have won four straight. You would think the Colts did their duty better with that kind of disparity, but let’s not forget a few “gimme” games they won this season; The first time they played Houston, when QB Sage Rosenfels fumbled the ball away twice in the waning moments of the game, the game against Pittsburgh when they were down 17-7 at one point and Ben Roethlisberger threw three terrible interceptions, and the game against Cleveland when they were down 6-3 in the fourth quarter and Robert Mathis returned a fumble by QB Ken Dorsey 37 yards for a 10-6 victory. Without those three wins, the Colts wouldn’t even be in the playoffs.

 

In the Charger’s four game streak, their only luck-job win was in Kansas City when they scored twelve points in the final 1:19 of the game to win 22-21. Other than that, they have soared in beating Oakland 34-7, Tampa Bay 41-24, and most recently, Denver 52-21.

 

With all of that being said, the Chargers having a passing game that is actually complimented by the run, the Colts having to rely on Peyton manning for most of the season, and a renewed vigor of the San Diego Chargers by their miracle playoff push after overcoming a 4-8 record, I just simply have to give the game to San Diego at home. There is a reason the Colts passing defense was 6th in the league, and that is because their opponents had field days against their 31^st ranked run defense. I am not saying the game won’t be close and that Peyton Manning isn’t great on the road just as he is at home, but the game can easily slip away from Indianapolis in the second half if they have to go score for score in this contest.

 

Chargers win.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons Playoff Primer

The first game of Wild-Card Weekend features two teams that I’m sure many people would argue are “one-and-done” teams. However, the fact is, one of these one-and-doners will definitely be advancing with the question of course being who.

 

The Atlanta Falcons do not have too much upside defensively. The only standout player this season was John Abraham who accounted for 47% of Atlanta’s 35 sacks with 16.5 total. That isn’t very good. That means of the other typical sackers on a standard NFL team, the three linebackers, the other defensive end, and perhaps the strong safety in some cases would have produced an average of 3.8 sacks a-piece. Too bad for the Falcons that Mr. Milloy, the strong safety, had none. Their 21^st ranked pass defense gave up 220.4 yards per game, and their 25^th ranked run D gave up 127.5 yards per game.

 

That type of passing defense won’t bode well against a quarterback in Kurt Warner who threw for over 4,500 yards this season. As far as the Falcons run defense goes, I guess that isn’t too bad as the Cardinals rush offense was good for last with 73.6 yards per game, meaning if they just don’t screw up any assignments and miss any tackles, they should be able to post a solid to admirable effort against the run.

 

But Edgerin James against the Seahawks this week amassed 100 yards on 14 carries. He has been off this season, but he perhaps could be trying to prove that he still has some gas left in the tank since that was his first game in a while, and if there was ever a game for him to do so, this could be it. And I know the argument can be that he did it against Seattle, but with a 25^th ranked run defense, the Falcons aren’t much better. Who knows? Maybe the Cards will run a two-back system with James and Tim Hightower, and they could stay fresh and get a couple decent gainers here and there.

 

On the flipside of things, the Cardinals defense gave up 26.6 points per game. Most teams wouldn’t even stand a chance at being in contention in the finals weeks of most regular NFL seasons with that kind of defense, but luckily for the Cardinals, they played in a bad division. On top of that, Arizona’s pass D was 22^nd giving up 221.2 yards per game. But the worst part is that their run defense, who faces Michael Turner (1,699 yards and 2^nd in the NFL), was 16^th giving up 110.2 yards per game.

 

The Falcons MO all year has been to give the ball to Turner as much as possible so that Matt Ryan only needs to make 2-3 good or big plays a game, usually to Roddy White who was fourth among all wide receivers with 1,382 yards and had seven of Ryan’s 16 total TDs.

 

The bottom line is, with the virtually identical defenses of both teams, if the Matt Ryan-led Falcons had more experience under their belt, this game would have had the makings for an Atlanta win as they could have grinded out the run game and kept the passes to a minimum as the Arizona run game and run defense has basically been non-existent for most of the season.

 

However… I just have to go with Kurt Warner’s will, experience, two stud wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, and the home crowd to come out on top. The tandem of Boldin and Fitzgerald are enough to make up for not having a running game against a young team like Atlanta. I think Matt Ryan is just too young to take this game, and for all the criticism that the Cardinals have received in losing four of their last five games, it is almost like Kurt Warner gets to start off fresh again. And I say this because in their recent losses, the Cardinals were getting blown out early to the point where Warner didn’t need to bother even trying the rest of whatever game they were playing. And if convention says that players need to stay hot going into the post season, I don’t see that as being the case here with Kurt Warner.

                                                                                                                           

Basically, both teams are not looking like Super Bowl contenders, and ultimately, when it comes down to two “one-and-done” type teams, you gotta go with the guys playing at home and especially with having the more experienced quarterback. Cardinals win.