Russia/Canada Eye Olympic Gold

The Winter Olympics were officially opened on Friday and starting Monday the NHL takes a backseat to the biggest hockey tournament in the world. With that in mind we’ll preview that tournament and let you know who the medal contenders are and of course give a prediction.

The tournament consists of 12 teams split into three groups of four as follows:

Group A – Canada; United States; Switzerland; Norway

Group B – Russia; Czech Republic; Slovakia; Latvia

Group C – Sweden; Finland; Belarus; Germany

Each team in a given group plays the other teams once in a round-robin after which the top team from each group plus the fourth best team remaining are given byes into the quarter-finals while the remainder of the teams play a preliminary playoff round to determine who will play those four top teams. Conventional wisdom says that only six of these teams has any real shot at the podium namely Canada, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Sweden, Russia, and the United States (perhaps Finland can slip in their too but it’s unlikely). In a tournament like this where every team qualifies for the elimination round it only takes one good game from a “lesser” team to upset the balance which is part of what makes this such an exciting event. With that said we’ll focus on the six, possibly seven, teams who are likely to be in serious medal contention starting with the hosting Canadians.

Considered by many to be the favorites to win the gold in Vancouver the Canadians have an incredibly talented roster (see http://proicehockey.about.com/od/olympichockey/a/2010-canada-roster.htm for full roster) and will be sound in every facet of the game. With a team this strong there is really no meaningful technical analysis that can be done to assess how they will finish. For Canada their biggest issues will be staying healthy and more importantly handling the pressure from the home crowd and media because they will be fully expected to win the gold medal with anything less being considered a failure. I think Canada’s greatest advantage will be their biggest downfall in that the crowd will be with them and that’s always helpful but if things do not go exactly as planned the pressure is going to mount big time and likely lead to Canada cracking under the pressure. It’s not so much because the players can’t handle the expectations as much as the pressure will cause them to play cautiously at times and the Russians (who I think will win the gold) will not have the same pressure on them so they can play loosely and seize the moments Canada plays tight resulting in disappointment for the whole country as they take the silver medal.

As for Russia they too have such a great roster together that technically there is little to speak of but there are some weaknesses for Russia. First off the biggest head-scratcher for them is that they have so many KHL players on their roster who were chosen over some NHL guys who could have (and perhaps should have) been on the team. Not only will these guys have a tough time adjusting to the North American ice size and style of play but in the opinion of most simply are not as talented as their NHL counterparts. Despite possibly diluting their talent pool the Russians still have a ton of fire power on their s squad (see http://www.2010tracker.com/2009/12/25/russia-announces-olympic-mens-hockey-team-roster/ for full roster) which can certainly outscore anyone at even strength but also results in them having an incredibly good power play unit. Teams will have to be concerned with every penalty they take because the Russians are likely to make you pay for almost any power play opportunity given to them. Their goal scoring prowess along with some great play in net will likely lead Russia to the Gold medal in this tournament. (It also doesn’t hurt that they have won two World Championships in a row).

The remainder of the top six are likely only going to be in contention for the Bronze medal (as long as the match-ups work out so that Russia and Canada end up meeting in the final).

Starting with team Sweden; although the Swedes are the defending Olympic champions their team looks good on paper but is an aged group of players and it is unlikely they will be able to keep pace with Canada or Russia but those teams aside the Swedes can make some hey against everyone else and that is why they are my favorite to take the Bronze.

Perhaps on the opposite end of the spectrum is team USA who has a very talented team but are very young (see http://proicehockey.about.com/od/olympichockey/a/2010-usa-roster.htm for full roster). It is unlikely that a team so lacking in experience can make a serious challenge for Silver or Gold but the strength of the rest of the field puts them squarely in the middle of the race for the Bronze medal. All team USA needs is to have their guys play reasonably well and have Ryan Miller steal a couple of games for them in the medal round to have a legitimate shot at the Bronze medal. Although the Bronze medal would be great for the Americans a fourth or fifth place finish would be quite an accomplishment for this upstart squad.

The Czech Republic has a very formidable roster assembled with a number of NHL players led by former NHLer and current KHL all-star Jaromir Jagr (see http://bleacherreport.com/articles/123948-2010-olympic-hockey-outlook-team-czech-republic for full roster). With the nice mix of young and veteran players the Czech Republic have to be considered co-favorites along with Sweden to grab the Bronze medal. The reason they are unlikely to make a push for the Gold is because they have a solid roster but no one really stands out on their team. Tomas Vokoun is probably their biggest star and while a goaltender can steal a game or two for you it would take that along with a star or two to carry the team any further than that and the Czechs simply do not have that.

The Slovakian team also has a fairly solid line-up just a step below the Czechs (see http://bleacherreport.com/articles/126346-2010-olympic-hockey-outlook-team-slovakia for full roster). And much like the Czechs the Slovakian squad lacks in big stars which hurts their chances to even compete for the Bronze medal. Their roster top to bottom is very solid but it’s pretty underwhelming with Zdeno Chara and Marian Hossa being their best players but Chara is a defensemen and Hossa is certainly not the player today he was even three years ago. So while a Bronze medal is a reasonable goal for this team they will likely not even be able to get that far and should probably be ready to accept a preliminary round win and that’s about it.

Those are my predictions but in such a short tournament just about anything can happen so it will be very exciting no matter what. Enjoy the games everybody, we’ll see you next time.

Western Conference Outlook

Tomorrow the journey for the Stanley Cup begins but for now we preview the other side of the coin before the puck drops, all analysis ends, and the games begin.

Ok corny intros aside here is my preview of the west (much like I did for the east) followed by the finals pick and who I think will hoist the Cup next spring.

The eight teams to qualify—in no particular order—are as follows: Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, St. Louis Blues, Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, Los Angeles Kings, and the San Jose Sharks.

The Detroit Red Wings are the best of the best again and despite having lost Hudler and Hossa they will simply use the machine of a farm system they’ve created to reload without skipping a beat. The only outstanding question in Detroit is the regular season play of Chris Osgood who put up subpar numbers last year from October through March. Showing up in the playoffs has always been Osgood’s M.O. but if he is as inconsistent this year as he was last season the rise of other teams in Detroit’s division could find the mighty Red Wings fighting for a playoff spot.

Things are looking up on the ice in Chicago as long as Patrick Kane can stay out of trouble off the ice. Kane along with Patrick Sharp and Jonathan Toews (among others) return while veterans John Madden and Marian Hossa have been added to an already star-studded roster. Much like their counterparts to the north Chicago’s only real unknown is in net as Nikolai Khabibulin is now a member of the Edmonton Oilers. The most seasoned and perhaps most likely person to provide stability for the Hawks between the pipes is Cristobal Huet who has shown some signs of greatness. No matter who ultimately gets and keeps the starting job as the goaltender goes so goes Chicago. If their netminder is consistenly good then Chicago can win it all, and if not then they won’t, but either way the playoffs are in their future.

Columbus got its first taste of post-season hockey last season riding mainly the back of surprise rookie netminder Steve Mason. While Mason will not enjoy the same amount of individual success as last year it is my contention that the team will fare better overall. Rick Nash is on a short list of stars on the Blue Jackets but what Columbus has over other teams is cohesiveness. This group has gone through a lot of losing together and last year they experienced a taste of winning. Last year’s success felt good to them and the bitterness of not winning a game in the post season no doubt left a bitter taste in their mouths and will only bring them together to work harder for one another to become a better squad.

Vancouver rode Roberto Luongo all the way to the post-season last year and sweep the St. Louis Blues out of the playoffs on the stick of Alex Burrows. The playoffs were a coming out party of sorts for Alex Burrows (according to some) and Canucks fans have to hope it was just that. Locking up the Sedin twins was huge for any hopes of being a serious contender for Vancouver but the past few seasons have shown that they cannot rely on the Sedin’s for all of their offense. Having three solid lines is something they have lacked for a few years causing their postseason success to be limited. Adding the experience of Mathieu Schneider will greatly improve their blueline but it will be up to the likes of Ryan Kessler and the aforementioned Alex Burrows to prop up this team to the next level. Round one is a given, but round two and beyond is up to Vancouver.

For the Calgary Flames it is short and sweet. They can make it to round one of the playoffs (as they will do again this year) but the question yet again for the Flames is will they have enough discipline to take their frustrations of first round exits and translate it into playing more sound hockey. It’s no longer about skill for Calgary, they’ve got that, it’s amount having the mental fortitude to better themselves as a team.

The Los Angeles Kings will probably be the most interesting and exciting story of the Western Conference this season. Most all puckheads agree that this team is on the rise but I think not only are they on the rise but that they will win their first round playoff series. Sure it puts me in a bind as far as other preseason predictions go but I’m saying this one supersedes all other predictions I make with the exception of the scenario in which they play the team I think will advance to the finals out of the west. Generally I am simply that confident in what the Kings organization as a whole is doing. They have taken their licks over the years but have spent a lot of time learning from those lumps and have put some pretty talented players in key areas. They have a lot of good, young players in Dustin Brown, Alexander Frolov  (heading into the prime of his career), Jack Johnson, Jarred Stoll (also heading into this prime) and Jonathan Quick who was extremely reliable in goal last year and is likely to only get better. Along with this young talent they have added seasoned veterans in Ryan Smyth and Rob Scuderi who has just come off a Stanley Cup Championship with the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Kings have the right people in the right places at the right time and barring injury this team is poised to be successful right now.

Lastly are the President’s Trophy winning San Jose Sharks who have done little to change their team in terms of quantity of moves but the quality of moves has been stellar. Dany Heatley was picked up—at the expense of Jonathan Cheechoo—and will be a wonderful addition to this squad. Regular season success has not been a problem for the Sharks (true of many west teams it seems) but Heatley puts them over the hump into serious contention to win the west. Heatley can not only score a lot of goals but he has enjoyed a fair amount of success before so his experience along with a chip on his shoulder to show those in Ottawa that he can still play is going to move San Jose along another step in the right direction.

The only other team that could make any noise should they make the playoffs are the Anaheim Ducks. Their experience is what sets them above the rest but unfortunately perhaps their greatest asset is their biggest downfall. The Ducks are an aging team who have lost yet another step at every position and can only hope to stay close until the trade deadline where they can maybe make a move for a younger group of players with fresher legs for a lengthy playoff run.  Edmonton is not far behind either but they fall short of the star power and physical play needed to succeed in the west. Goaltending is Edmonton’s strongest aspect but that was true last year as well so they will not get their either. No other team has a prayer of even getting to the playoffs let alone making noise once they get there.

With all of that said I think the Chicago Blackhawks will be the team to make it out of the west as they will find what they need in net and will go a step further than last year. Chicago will take on the Boston Bruins who will outlast a tired group of Pittsburgh Penguins to take the east. This sets up an awesome original six match-up which will be a marketing dream for the NHL. After an incredible back and fourth battle the Stanley Cup Finals will again go seven games at which point the Chicago Blackhawks will finally allow Marian Hossa to hoist the Stanley Cup as the 2009-2010 Stanley Cup Champions! Enjoy opening night everyone!

Seasons Greetings (Hockey Season That Is)

Well it has been a long time coming for but finally the NHL season is upon us and as such so is the return of the NHL section of sportsroids.com. I am just as excited as anyone for the season to rev up again so let’s get right to it.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are back to defend their title and with the exception of the loss of Rob Scuderi the team is about the same now as they were on the day they won the cup. Despite that, repeating is going to be a daunting task because not only are they the defending champs but in order to repeat they will have to reach the Stanley Cup Finals for a third year in a row. At the same time they still have two of the best players in the world on their team so it will be interesting to see how the story develops in Pittsburgh.

As for the rest of the league there are a lot of intriguing stories to keep an eye on including some old faces in new places (for example Dany Heatley to San Jose, Marian Hossa to Chicago) as well as the return of a few from their disappearing acts (Ray Emery in Philadelphia, Theo Fleury in Calgary).  There are also plenty of questions to be asked about both up and coming teams as well as those who have been on the cusp but have not quite made that next big step:
In the East, can Washington play just enough defense this year to get them into the Conference Finals and possibly make their first finals appearance in the Ovechkin Era? Will Philadelphia finally get the consistent play in net they have lacked the last two years that will likely get them over the hump? Does the Southeast Division continue to be a two horse race or can Tampa Bay finally put their talent together well enough to become serious playoff contenders? And what is actually going on in Montreal and Ottawa, have they finally got their respective acts together?
Out west, will Chicago seize this opportunity to dethrone the Detroit Red Wings in the Central Division? Is Dany Heatley the answer to San Jose finally translating their regular season triumphs into post-season glory? Are the L.A. Kings poised to translate their young talent into a playoff appearance? Is Calgary ready to kick their first round exit habit of the last few years? What is the deal with the Coyotes, are they moving or what?

Of course along with all of the aforementioned questions there are to two major events on the horizon this year in both the Winter Classic (January 1 at Fenway Park) and the Olympic hockey tournament in Vancouver this February. There is so much to talk about and look forward to this season. Over the next few days I will go through a preview of each conference, give you not only who will win each but what other stories to watch out for like what teams will overachieve and those that will disappoint.

So much to do and talk about, it’s great to be talking puck again. We here at sportsroids.com are very excited to start year two of hockey blogging, it’s great to have you with us!

Long Term Deals Being Probed

ESPN is reporting that the long term deals recently signed by Marian Hossa in Chicago and Chris Pronger in Philadelphia are being investigated by the NHL. In short the league is considering whether the two players were asked about when they would retire in order to front load a long-term deal to circumvent the salary cap. In my view no matter what these probes turn up the two aforementioned deals along with contracts worked with some Detroit Red Wing players are obviously to get around the salary cap. This rule bending simply needs to stop. At the end of the day the salary cap’s intention is to give medium to small market teams a chance to field championship caliber teams and by making these long term deals the rich teams are simply doing what they’ve always done and spending their way to the top.  If the richer teams continue to do that the viability of the league as a whole is in jeopardy and that’s not good for any time. Some argue that the viability of the league generally is an issue for the league officials to deal with and that individual teams have a responsibility to do what they can to win and that’s it. However, in reality “bending” the rules designed to make and keep the league prosperous hurts everyone including the teams on top no matter how many playoff appearances or championships they may bring in. More teams in contention in more cities means better U.S. TV deals and higher sales of merchandise which means more money for everyone consistently over the long haul. So to the big market GMs of the world think about the long term consequences of your actions before you decide to upset the  balance by bending the rules to get a competitive edge.

Team Cohesion = Championships, Not Amount Spent

When free agency began there were a lot of teams with a lot of needs and as a result the early hours have seen plenty of shuffling around. It’s funny to see how quickly teams respond to players leaving, for instance there is the news that Dwayne Roloson is heading to Long Island and shortly thereafter Edmonton makes a deal to acquire Stanley Cup winning netminder Nikolai Khabibulin. Teams spend a lot of money trying to improve their rosters and to play a bit of cat and mouse with their rivals. There are even GMs who learn from other GMs how to circumvent the salary cap to get their man; last year Detroit signs the likes of Zetterberg to long term deals and low and behold the rival Blackhawks do the very same thing when they signed Marian Hossa to a 12 year deal. So does spending all of this money, playing mind games, etc. really result in better chances at winning the Stanley Cup? Ask the pre-salary cap Detroit Red Wings and the answer will be yes but that system has not lended itself to very much success otherwise. Consider the Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers of the past few years; so much money spent on those considered to be big stars but yielded very little success compared to expectations.

A great example of what it takes the win is the current Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins. Sure they have the superstars in Malkin and Crosby but anyone who watched the playoffs knows their performances alone were not enough. Guys like Staal (a star perhaps in the making but not their yet), Kennedy, and Talbot played key roles in bringing the Penguins the title and clearly would not have won without them. Picking up a few pieces along the way (not to mention a timely coaching change) and the Penguins had the cohesion needed to take home the Cup. We will know more about the makeup of the teams come training camp but in the meantime if you’re keeping a close eye on your teams moves in free agency be looking at the whole picture. It’s not just about signing the big scorer or even a big time goalie; what you should look for is if your team is putting together a cohesive unit. Make sure there is a role for every superstar signed and look to see if every role that needs to be filled is done so and you don’t have a bunch of guys all signed to do the same thing. If there is a place for everyone the deals work, and if there isn’t Championships become a pipe dream.

Free Agency Extravaganza

Arguably the most exciting part of the NHL offseason begins on Wednesday and that is the beginning of the Free Agency period. The draft resulted in very few moves which leaves a lot of mystery to unfold with some big names on the market including Marian Hossa, Alexi Kovalev, Saku Koivu, Marian Gaborik, and Rob Scuderi (whose stock went way up after his performance in the playoffs) among many other players who will likely be asking for big time deals.  Jay Boumeester will most likely be off the market (barring any disaster) before free agency begins so what can we expect starting Wednesday? With the salary cap only going up by $100K can teams afford to sign big names to gigantic contracts? And what teams have the most to gain from the frenzy?

Perhaps the most obvious place to start is in Montreal where the Canadiens have just come off a very disappointing playoff appearance and who have ten players to become unrestricted free agents (UFA). That will leave a crater to fill in a place where the fans are hungry for a Stanley Cup but have not seen one since 1993. In all likelihood the Canadiens (under new ownership) will go in a new direction and not try to resign big names like Kovalev since this core group has not had the type of success demanded by playing in Montreal. I would be surprised if they try to resign a lot of their players but they will have a lot of decisions to make. If nothing else, Montreal can hang their hats on the fact that they have a goaltender in Carey Price who should be solid for years to come if he just regains his confidence.

A team that is perhaps on the cusp and has a lot to gain from free agency is the Minnesota Wild. Minnesota’s goaltending is solid as Niklas Backstrom was just nominated for the Vezina Trophy and he’s got a great defensive unit in front of him. With that said Minnesota simply needs to get itself some goal scorers or just ONE and that should make up for the two points that kept them out of the playoffs this past season. Marian Hossa comes to mind as an option or perhaps the Sedin twins out of Vancouver, both options would supply the Wild with the scoring they seek.

There also may or may not be a shakeup in San Jose despite their enormous regular season success the post-season saw them exit in the first round. Some have suggested goaltending is all that needs to be addressed and Scott Clemmensen may just be the answer for San Jose’s alleged goaltending needs. Brian Boucher and Evgeni Nabokov did a more than adequate job in my opinion but rumblings in the San Jose front office suggests that it was not up the par in the post-season and they are not very happy with that.

The possibilities are endless for teams all over the league once free agency starts but there is a bit of a taste of the types of moves that could happen. It should be a very exciting day for hockey fans everywhere especially those who think their team is only a move or two away from making a run at the Stanley Cup. There aren’t too many offseason days that produce excitement and this is one of them so hopefully it is an enjoyable one for those needing a hockey fix since the end of the finals.

2009 Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins defied the odds Friday night by defeating the Detroit Red Wings to win the franchises third Stanley Cup and first since 1992. The hero of the night was Max Talbot who scored both of Pittsburgh’s goals and had the Red Wings scurrying to keep up with him all night. It had been said that the Wings were going to be able to use their experience to walk all over the Penguins to win back-to-back titles with ease. What Pittsburgh showed Friday night is not only did they have outduel Detroit in a game seven, but for the second game in a row they showed more depth than the Red Wings from top to bottom. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were again both held without a goal and once again the Penguins showed they don’t need their stars to score in order to win. Malkin did in fact have an assist on this night propelling him to his 36^th point and ultimately the Conn Smythe trophy making him the first Russian and only fourth non Canadian to win the Award.

One star the Penguins did need to come up with a huge game was netminder Marc-Andre Fleury and boy did he delivery. Fleury played arguably his best game of the series in game seven exercising all of his Joe Louis Arena demons in the process. Going into the game most felt that Pittsburgh needed a strong game from everyone on the ice to ultimately hoist the cup and that’s exactly what they got. Pittsburgh was sharper than Detroit from start to finish including the man who came to the Red Wings in the offseason from Pittsburgh in one Marian Hossa. It was the ultimate irony as Hossa not only did not win a Stanley Cup in Detroit but he lost to the team he left because he felt he’d have a better chance of winning as a Red Wing. Hossa was a ghost in the final series and perhaps the pressure to perform got to him, or maybe we’ll later on about an injury he was playing with but the bottom line is he left Pittsburgh last summer to win a cup and it was the Penguins who ended up winning the whole thing.

So congratulations to the Pittsburgh Penguins on their victory. This is a bunch of young guys who may find themselves in this position time and time again in the years to come. But for now, it is a moment for them to simply soak up and enjoy because despite their talent it is also something that may never happen again. Detroit will no doubt be back next year as they retool and get re-energized for next season, but for now the mountain top belongs to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Role Players are Golden Commodities

In all sports there is always talk about the superstars and what they bring to teams. A lot of fans—teams for that matter—expect superstars to be super heroes. Like all sports people see superstars on a team and assess their team’s chances based on—essentially—the big names alone. Now that the NHL season has hit February a lot of teams who were successful last year are learning—if they didn’t know already—how much impact a role player can have on a team’s success or lack thereof. Two great examples of that are the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens.

Granted, the Penguins lost Marian Hossa in the offseason but even before him the Penguins were a pretty good team; but along with Hossa they lost a number of role players and now they find themselves struggling just to get into the playoffs. Pittsburgh is really missing the toughness of Georges Laraque but also his ability to handle the puck down low in the offensive zone which really helps protect leads, something the Penguins have really struggled to do. Another thing the Penguins have not had a lot of are “garbage” goals in front of the net because nobody is willing to stand in front of the net to take that punishment the way Ryan Malone did. A strong presence in front of the net for any team is invaluable and it was almost poetic for Ryan Malone to score one of those “garbage” goals against the Penguins in Tampa’s 4-3 loss at Pittsburgh last week. Likewise, Jarkko Ruutu’s ability to not only draw penalties but frustrate the other team getting them to focus on things other than winning the game was priceless. Pittsburgh has a pretty good chance of making the playoffs with the team they have assembled but they would be in better shape with at least those three guys back in all likelihood.

The free-falling Montreal Canadiens role player issues focus mainly on losing Mark Streit to the Islanders. With Streit the Canadiens had an incredible power play that made teams who took penalties against them pay dearly and pay often. In the offseason the Canadiens lost Streit and now their power play is one of the worst in the league. The advantage of the power play is obvious but it is an even bigger deal when a team thrives on it because when its performance goes down the team is less likely to be successful. Since their power play is no longer lethal, the Canadiens needed other guys to accelerate their respective games to be successful and for most of the season they got that. Robert Lang became the team’s leading scorer providing them with more than they could have possibly hoped for from him. Along with Lang’s play Carey Price’s game had really improved and that allowed Montreal to stay afloat. But now Robert Lang is out for the season, Price has been struggling with his confidence and Kovalev’s play has been below average all year. As a result of these recent events the Canadiens are in a free-fall and coming dangerously close to missing the playoffs. Now, both Pittsburgh and Montreal know the value of role players more than ever before.

Do Not Sleep On Ovechkin and Capitals

Alexander Ovechkin tallied 5 points (a goal and 4 assists) Wednesday night as the Washington Capitals defeated the Anaheim Ducks 6-4. Many people in the league have talked about: how well the Bruins are playing in front of Tim Thomas, the Penguins are off to their best start since 1995, San Jose rolling, Marian Hossa gelling with another great Detroit Red Wings team, Minnesota’s fantastic defense, and of course year 100 pour Les Canadiens de Montreal—but do not sleep on the Washington Capitals. The defending Southeast Division champions are once again leading a fairly mediocre pack of teams with a quarter of the season gone. Most will focus on Ovechkin but the Capitals have a more complete team surrounding their superstar this year. Alexander Semin is racking up the points thus far and although the defense is nothing to write home about they absolutely do an adequate job in front of the goaltending duel of Brent Johnson and Jose Theodore who have preformed more than admirably through the first 18 games of the season. Washington will be a very scary team come playoff time because they can score enough to beat anyone on any given night, have a great home ice advantage where they have yet to lose a game in regulation, and now have a team with a full tank of playoff experience. Although I think the Caps need more of a physical presence to be a championship contender (sorry but Donald Brashear cannot do it all himself) they can certainly make a lot of noise nonetheless come April.